🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake

09/10/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Real Salt Lake
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

14%

2:0

10%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
HDRSL

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.92
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.60
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.25
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Jack McGlynn  not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)

Real Salt Lake

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.79
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Sergi Solans on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)

  • 2
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

32%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Defense vs away weakness: Houston concede just 0.70 goals at home, whereas RSL concede 2.86 goals on the road
  • Form disparity: Houston are unbeaten in their last two games, while Real Salt Lake are winless in five matches
  • The absence of Sergi Solans weakens the visitors' attack, as the forward (9 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated
Risk Factors
  • Struggling offense: Houston's goal production is low with 1.0 recent goals compared to their season average of 1.43
  • Real Salt Lake averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches and remain dangerous despite their current form crisis
  • Real Salt Lake dominated recent head-to-head history with four wins in the last five meetings
Overview

Houston Dynamo host Real Salt Lake at the Shell Energy Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 2:30 AM

Clash between 2nd-placed Houston (40 points) and 10th-placed Real Salt Lake (29 points)

Houston look to cement their second place while the visitors seek to close the gap

Form

Houston Dynamo show a stable trend with a WWLDD form

The home side registered two consecutive draws recently

Real Salt Lake are struggling in a crisis with a DLLLD form

The visitors are winless in their last five matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Houston average 1.30 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game this season

At home, Houston's defense is extremely solid, conceding only 0.70 goals per match

Real Salt Lake struggle defensively with 1.59 goals conceded on average

On the road, the visitors concede a high average of 2.86 goals per game

Venue history shows a low-scoring trend with an average of only 1.4 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches in recent history

Real Salt Lake recorded four wins and only one defeat

The last encounter on May 14, 2026, ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Real Salt Lake

Overall goal difference of 10-7 in favor of the visitors

Key Players

Top attacker Guilherme shines for Houston with 12 goals and 5 assists this season

Mateusz Bogusz contributes 4 goals and 1 assist from midfield

Héctor Herrera controls the game with an average rating of 6.95

Diego Luna stands out for Real Salt Lake with 5 goals and 3 assists

Noel Caliskan has provided 4 assists in midfield

Not nominated for the visitors is Sergi Solans (9 goals, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond made 23 appearances for Houston and kept 11 clean sheets

His counterpart Rafael Cabral played 21 matches and recorded 2 clean sheets

Bond carries a seasonal average rating of 6.97

Cabral has a seasonal average rating of 6.71

Influences

Houston benefit from strong home form with only 7 goals conceded in 10 home matches

The game will be played on natural grass at Shell Energy Stadium

Stadium history indicates a very low-scoring environment with 1.4 average goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.