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Houston Dynamo – Real Salt Lake2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.27
Total xG
2.11
Real Salt Lake
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.92 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.79 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Jack McGlynn not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Sergi Solans on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense vs away weakness: Houston concede just 0.70 goals at home, whereas RSL concede 2.86 goals on the road
- Form disparity: Houston are unbeaten in their last two games, while Real Salt Lake are winless in five matches
- The absence of Sergi Solans weakens the visitors' attack, as the forward (9 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated
Risks
- Struggling offense: Houston's goal production is low with 1.0 recent goals compared to their season average of 1.43
- Real Salt Lake averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches and remain dangerous despite their current form crisis
- Real Salt Lake dominated recent head-to-head history with four wins in the last five meetings
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo45%
Draw32%
Real Salt Lake23%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw77%
Real Salt Lake or draw55%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Houston Dynamo: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-4-2 · Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 11 L. Ennali
- 5 L. Halter
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 21 F. Negri
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 3 K. Henry
- 21 J. Arias
- 4 L. Engel
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 25 C. Guske
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 10 D. Luna
- 13 J. Shokalook
Substitutes
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 34 A. Resch
- 37 G. Rivera
- 33 V. Silva
- 26 P. Quinton
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 34 L. Moisa
- 77 R. Messalles
- 98 A. Katranis
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 30 O. Anderson
- 70 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
- 76 L. O'Gara
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