Major League Soccer
Houston Dynamo - Real Salt Lake
09/10/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.1
0.8
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Houston Dynamo
Real Salt Lake
League
The Lab
- 1Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- 2Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- 3Real Salt Lake: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Houston Dynamo: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
32%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Defense vs away weakness: Houston concede just 0.70 goals at home, whereas RSL concede 2.86 goals on the road
- Form disparity: Houston are unbeaten in their last two games, while Real Salt Lake are winless in five matches
- The absence of Sergi Solans weakens the visitors' attack, as the forward (9 goals, 3 assists) is not nominated
Risk Factors
- Struggling offense: Houston's goal production is low with 1.0 recent goals compared to their season average of 1.43
- Real Salt Lake averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches and remain dangerous despite their current form crisis
- Real Salt Lake dominated recent head-to-head history with four wins in the last five meetings
Overview
Houston Dynamo host Real Salt Lake at the Shell Energy Stadium
Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 2:30 AM
Clash between 2nd-placed Houston (40 points) and 10th-placed Real Salt Lake (29 points)
Houston look to cement their second place while the visitors seek to close the gap
Form
Houston Dynamo show a stable trend with a WWLDD form
The home side registered two consecutive draws recently
Real Salt Lake are struggling in a crisis with a DLLLD form
The visitors are winless in their last five matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Houston average 1.30 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game this season
At home, Houston's defense is extremely solid, conceding only 0.70 goals per match
Real Salt Lake struggle defensively with 1.59 goals conceded on average
On the road, the visitors concede a high average of 2.86 goals per game
Venue history shows a low-scoring trend with an average of only 1.4 goals per match
Head-to-Head
Five head-to-head matches in recent history
Real Salt Lake recorded four wins and only one defeat
The last encounter on May 14, 2026, ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Real Salt Lake
Overall goal difference of 10-7 in favor of the visitors
Key Players
Top attacker Guilherme shines for Houston with 12 goals and 5 assists this season
Mateusz Bogusz contributes 4 goals and 1 assist from midfield
Héctor Herrera controls the game with an average rating of 6.95
Diego Luna stands out for Real Salt Lake with 5 goals and 3 assists
Noel Caliskan has provided 4 assists in midfield
Not nominated for the visitors is Sergi Solans (9 goals, 3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Jonathan Bond made 23 appearances for Houston and kept 11 clean sheets
His counterpart Rafael Cabral played 21 matches and recorded 2 clean sheets
Bond carries a seasonal average rating of 6.97
Cabral has a seasonal average rating of 6.71
Influences
Houston benefit from strong home form with only 7 goals conceded in 10 home matches
The game will be played on natural grass at Shell Energy Stadium
Stadium history indicates a very low-scoring environment with 1.4 average goals