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Portland Timbers – Minnesota United5 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.68
Total xG
3.13
Minnesota United
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Kevin Kelsy not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brandon Bye not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Tomás Chancalay on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) |
Key factors
- Extreme artificial turf advantage: Portland earned 6 wins on this surface, whereas Minnesota lost both games on turf with a 1-8 goal difference
- Counter-oriented tactics: Minnesota United recently averaged 6.2 shots on target and is scoring more frequently than their season average
- High scoring probability: The mathematical model calculates a 64% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Vulnerable defense of the hosts, conceding an average of 1.77 goals per league match
- The absence of top goalscorer Kevin Kelsy weakens Portland's attacking lineup
- Poor away record for Minnesota United on artificial turf with zero points from two games so far
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers42%
Draw26%
Minnesota United32%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw68%
Minnesota United or draw58%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
5:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 19)
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 7 of 12 games
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 · Minnesota United 3-4-1-2
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 15 E. Miller
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 17 C. Bassett
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 3 K. Duncan
- 20 W. Trapp
- 30 O. Géne
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 9 K. Yeboah
Substitutes
- 2 J. Waterman
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 23 I. Smith
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 88 G. Guerra
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 25 N. Triantis
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 33 K. Chandler
- 18 M. Gonzalez
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