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Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Minnesota United

09/06/2026, 02:30 AM

5 : 4
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.7
Total xG
3.1
Minnesota United
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
PTMU

Portland Timbers

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.05
Kevin Kelsy not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists)
Brandon Bye not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Minnesota United

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.21
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
+0.11
Tomás Chancalay on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United: 42% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 19)

  • 4
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 7 of 12 games

  • 5
    Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)

  • 6
    Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

26%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Extreme artificial turf advantage: Portland earned 6 wins on this surface, whereas Minnesota lost both games on turf with a 1-8 goal difference
  • Counter-oriented tactics: Minnesota United recently averaged 6.2 shots on target and is scoring more frequently than their season average
  • High scoring probability: The mathematical model calculates a 64% probability for both teams to score
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable defense of the hosts, conceding an average of 1.77 goals per league match
  • The absence of top goalscorer Kevin Kelsy weakens Portland's attacking lineup
  • Poor away record for Minnesota United on artificial turf with zero points from two games so far
Overview

Portland Timbers (11th place, 28 points) host Minnesota United (9th place, 29 points) at Providence Park

Major League Soccer match on September 6, 2026, 4:30 AM

A tight mid-table clash with important playoff points on the line

Form

Portland Timbers enter with a form of WLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their most recent result was a home defeat against Austin

Minnesota United arrive with a form of DDLWD

Their last match ended in a draw against Orlando City

Statistics

Portland Timbers score an average of 1.77 goals and concede 1.77 goals per game

Both teams scored in 17 of the 22 matches played by the hosts this season

Minnesota United average 1.36 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded

Portland is strong at home, scoring 24 goals in 14 home fixtures

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches in recent history

Minnesota United recorded 2 wins, Portland Timbers 1 win, and 2 matches ended in a draw

The last direct encounter ended in a 0-2 away win for Minnesota United

Key Players

Kristoffer Velde has recorded 5 goals and 6 assists with a 7.18 rating

David Da Costa contributed 3 goals and 6 assists so far

Cole Bassett scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists

Kelvin Yeboah leads the visitors with 11 goals this season

Joaquín Pereyra excels with 8 assists and an average rating of 7.51

Anthony Markanich Jr. records 6 goals and 3 assists from defense

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis is in goal for Portland Timbers with a 7.12 season rating

He achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Drake Callender guards the goal for Minnesota United with a 6.87 rating

He recorded 5 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Providence Park

Portland Timbers hold a strong home record of 6 wins on artificial turf

Minnesota United lost both of their matches on this surface with a 1-8 goal difference

Matches at Providence Park recently averaged 3.4 goals per game

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