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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - Los Angeles FC

09/19/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.9
Total xG
3.3
Los Angeles FC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SELAF

SJ Earthquakes

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
17% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)

Los Angeles FC

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.17
Ryan Hollingshead on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SJ Earthquakes: 73% of all goals in the first half (11 of 15, last 12 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 40% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 15)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

25%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Home power vs away vulnerability: SJ Earthquakes average 1.82 goals at home while LAFC concede 1.6 away
  • Tactical threat: Los Angeles FC averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a 50% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Ryan Hollingshead is missing for Los Angeles FC
  • SJ Earthquakes concede an average of 1.73 goals per home match
  • Historical trend: Los Angeles FC won four of the last five head-to-head matches
Overview

SJ Earthquakes (4th place, 41 points) host Los Angeles FC (6th place, 40 points)

MLS match at Levi's Stadium on September 19, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct clash in the upper section of the Major League Soccer table

Form

SJ Earthquakes entering with LDDWW form (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Los Angeles FC entering with DDDWL form (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

SJ Earthquakes are on a two-game winning streak

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes average 1.76 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per match

Los Angeles FC average 1.58 goals scored and 1.04 goals conceded per match

Los Angeles FC concede an average of 1.6 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches played in total

Four wins for Los Angeles FC and one win for SJ Earthquakes

The last matchup ended in a 4-1 away victory for SJ Earthquakes on April 19, 2026

Key Players

Niko Tsakiris with 3 goals, 7 assists, and a 7.37 rating

Denis Bouanga with 13 goals, 5 assists, and a 7.45 rating

Heung-min Son with 5 goals, 9 assists, and a 7.21 rating

Goalkeepers

Angus Gunn with 7 clean sheets and a 6.8 rating

Hugo Lloris with 13 clean sheets and a 6.96 rating

Influences

Home advantage for SJ Earthquakes with 1.82 goals scored per home match

Natural grass surface at Levi's Stadium with an average of 2.0 goals per game

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