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SJ Earthquakes – Los Angeles FC2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
1.93
Total xG
3.25
Los Angeles FC
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| 17% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Ryan Hollingshead on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home power vs away vulnerability: SJ Earthquakes average 1.82 goals at home while LAFC concede 1.6 away
- Tactical threat: Los Angeles FC averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a 50% probability for a home win
Risks
- Ryan Hollingshead is missing for Los Angeles FC
- SJ Earthquakes concede an average of 1.73 goals per home match
- Historical trend: Los Angeles FC won four of the last five head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes50%
Draw25%
Los Angeles FC25%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw75%
Los Angeles FC or draw50%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: 73% of all goals in the first half (11 of 15, last 12 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 40% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 15)
- Los Angeles FC: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1 · Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 23 E. Löwen
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 34 B. Leroux
- 7 O. Bouda
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 8 M. Delgado
- 9 A. Sieb
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Substitutes
- 11 T. Werner
- 3 P. Marie
- 6 I. Harkes
- 16 J. Skahan
- 19 P. Judd
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 21 L. Walta
- 19 T. Boyd
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 22 J. Terry
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 31 C. Carter
- 17 J. Ebobisse
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