Match report →
DC United – Charlotte1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.39
Total xG
3.03
Charlotte
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.45 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 2 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Silvan Hefti on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Will Cleary on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Charlotte won all 5 previous head-to-head encounters against DC United
- Form strength: Charlotte is unbeaten in 5 matches (WWDWD) while DC United won only once in their last 5 games
- Offensive trend: Charlotte is scoring more frequently, averaging 2.5 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Charlotte concedes an average of 2.09 goals in away matches
- Low offensive threat: DC United averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Squad changes: Silvan Hefti (DC United) and Will Cleary (Charlotte) are missing from the starting lineups
All probabilities
Result
DC United31%
Draw27%
Charlotte42%
Double chance
DC United or draw58%
Charlotte or draw69%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Charlotte: 64% of all goals in the first half (16 of 25, last 12 games)
- DC United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
DC United 4-3-3 · Charlotte 4-2-3-1
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 2 K. Nono
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 23 B. Servania
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 9 T. Baribo
- 11 L. Munteanu
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 22 F. Kessler
- 3 T. Ream
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 8 A. Westwood
- 13 B. Bronico
- 11 L. Abada
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
- 5 S. Hefti
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 12 W. Antley
- 13 S. Nealis
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 77 H. Kijima
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 25 T. Smalls
- 28 D. Diani
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 37 R. Aloko
- 35 W. Cleary
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