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Major League Soccer

DC United - Charlotte

09/19/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
DC United
1.4
Total xG
3.0
Charlotte
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DUCHA

DC United

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.45
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Silvan Hefti on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Charlotte

Rising form (2.5 vs 2 season average)
+0.16
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.06
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.01
Will Cleary on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 2
    DC United: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)

  • 3
    Charlotte: 64% of all goals in the first half (16 of 25, last 12 games)

  • 4
    DC United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

  • 5
    DC United: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

27%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Historical dominance: Charlotte won all 5 previous head-to-head encounters against DC United
  • Form strength: Charlotte is unbeaten in 5 matches (WWDWD) while DC United won only once in their last 5 games
  • Offensive trend: Charlotte is scoring more frequently, averaging 2.5 goals compared to their season average of 2.0
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: Charlotte concedes an average of 2.09 goals in away matches
  • Low offensive threat: DC United averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Squad changes: Silvan Hefti (DC United) and Will Cleary (Charlotte) are missing from the starting lineups
Overview

DC United (11th place, 29 points) host Charlotte (4th place, 40 points) on September 19, 2026, 11:30 PM at Audi Field

Major League Soccer match with Charlotte entering as favorites with a 42% modeled win probability

The home side fights to close the gap from the bottom of the table

Form

DC United is in moderate form with a LLDWD record (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)

Their last match ended in a scoreless draw against Atlanta United

Charlotte is undefeated in their last 5 games with a WWDWD record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

Most recently, they drew 3-3 against Cincinnati

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

DC United averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game this season

Their scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.0 goals compared to their season average of 1.5

Charlotte averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.44 conceded overall

In away matches, Charlotte concedes an average of 2.09 goals

Charlotte is currently scoring more frequently, averaging 2.5 goals compared to their season average of 2.0

Head-to-Head

Charlotte dominates the head-to-head history with 5 wins from 5 matches

DC United has never won a direct matchup

The total goal difference stands at 10-2 in favor of Charlotte

The last encounter on August 22, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Charlotte

Key Players

Tai Baribo has scored 14 goals for DC United this season with a rating of 7.16

Louis Munteanu contributed 6 goals and 3 assists

Peglow has 1 goal and 4 assists this season

Pep Biel is Charlotte's key player with 12 goals and 7 assists, maintaining a strong rating of 7.32

Idan Toklomati contributes 9 goals and 2 assists

Liel Abada shines with 5 goals and 5 assists in the current campaign

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson guards the net for DC United with 24 appearances this season and a rating of 6.81

Kristijan Kahlina has played 25 games for Charlotte with an average rating of 7.15

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Audi Field

Historical venue statistics show an average of 2.0 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the last 5 matches here

Both teams scored in 40% of those encounters

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