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Dallas – Portland Timbers2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.61
Total xG
2.91
Portland Timbers
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Petar Musa on the bench (18 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Osaze Urhoghide on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Herman Johansson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| David Da Costa not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Ariel Lassiter on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jimer Fory on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 38% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Dallas' strong home offense (2.0 goals per game) meets Portland's vulnerable away defense conceding 2.62 goals per game
- Form trend: Dallas recently averages 2.8 goals per game, scoring more frequently than their seasonal average of 2.2
- H2H dominance: Portland Timbers failed to win any of the last 5 direct duels against Dallas
Risks
- David Da Costa, Ariel Lassiter, Jimer Fory are missing for Portland, only 59% of goal threat is available
- Both teams face a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Severe away weakness: Portland concedes a high average of 2.62 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Dallas43%
Draw27%
Portland Timbers29%
Double chance
Dallas or draw71%
Portland Timbers or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')
Lineups
Dallas 3-4-2-1 · Portland Timbers 4-2-3-1
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 18 S. Moore
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 32 N. Norris
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 10 S. Moreno
- 23 L. Farrington
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 20 F. Surman
- 2 J. Waterman
- 23 I. Smith
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 17 C. Bassett
- 99 K. Velde
- 22 O. Fernandez
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 9 P. Musa
- 12 C. Cappis
- 14 H. Johansson
- 28 S. Sarver
- 40 J. Sirois
- 24 J. Torquato
- 33 C. Holstad
- 4 K. Miller
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 15 E. Miller
- 16 S. Jura
- 88 G. Guerra
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 26 H. Sulte
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