🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Dallas - Portland Timbers

09/13/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Portland Timbers
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DALPT

Dallas

Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Petar Musa on the bench (18 goals, 4 assists)
Osaze Urhoghide on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Herman Johansson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Portland Timbers

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.14
David Da Costa not in squad (3 goals, 7 assists)
Ariel Lassiter on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Jimer Fory on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
38% of goal output missing (only 59% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Dallas: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

27%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Dallas' strong home offense (2.0 goals per game) meets Portland's vulnerable away defense conceding 2.62 goals per game
  • Form trend: Dallas recently averages 2.8 goals per game, scoring more frequently than their seasonal average of 2.2
  • H2H dominance: Portland Timbers failed to win any of the last 5 direct duels against Dallas
Risk Factors
  • David Da Costa, Ariel Lassiter, Jimer Fory are missing for Portland, only 59% of goal threat is available
  • Both teams face a short recovery period with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Severe away weakness: Portland concedes a high average of 2.62 goals per away game
Overview

Dallas hosts the Portland Timbers at Toyota Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 13, 2026, 12:30 AM

Dallas currently sits in 4th place with 40 points

Portland Timbers arrive in 8th place with 32 points

The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 43%

Form

Dallas shows stable form with the record WLDWW

The hosts won their last match 2-1 away against Minnesota United

Portland Timbers have a form curve of WDLWD

The visitors recently played to a 2-2 draw against St. Louis City

Both teams exhibit positive trends with high-scoring games

Statistics

Dallas averages 1.96 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per match this season

In home games, Dallas's scoring rate rises to 2.0 per match with 1.73 goals conceded

Portland Timbers average 1.92 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded over the season

In away games, Portland concedes a significant average of 2.62 goals per match

Both teams scored in 16 of Dallas's games and 19 of Portland's games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas secured 2 wins and 3 draws

Portland Timbers failed to win any match during this period

The last encounter on July 23, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Dallas scored a total of 9 goals in these meetings, while Portland recorded 6

Key Players

Logan Farrington has scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists for Dallas this season

Joaquín Valiente shines in the hosts' midfield with one goal and 8 assists

Santiago Moreno has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists so far

Kristoffer Velde is Portland's top attacker with 8 goals and 6 assists this season

Cole Bassett registers 3 goals and 4 assists in the visitors' midfield

Antony has already contributed 3 goals and 2 assists this campaign

Goalkeepers

Daniel guards the goal for Dallas with 2 appearances and zero clean sheets this season

James Pantemis is in goal for Portland, playing 24 seasonal matches with one clean sheet

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Toyota Stadium

Stadium history shows a high-scoring average of 3.8 goals per match

In 4 out of 5 matches at this venue, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.