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SJ Earthquakes – Colorado Rapids2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
1.47
Total xG
2.85
Colorado Rapids
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Paul Marie on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dave Romney on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Both teams recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with 1.2 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: SJ Earthquakes average 1.73 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per home game in the league this season
- Head-to-head: In the last 5 meetings, there were 2 wins for SJ Earthquakes, 2 for Colorado Rapids and 1 draw
Risks
- Away: Colorado Rapids average 0.87 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per away game in the league this season
- Standings: SJ Earthquakes are 4th in the league with 48 points from 31 games, Colorado Rapids 8th with 42 points
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes38%
Draw28%
Colorado Rapids34%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw66%
Colorado Rapids or draw62%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.47 : 1.38, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: 9 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Colorado Rapids: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
- SJ Earthquakes: 36% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 14)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 4-2-3-1 · Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 5 D. Munie
- 18 R. Roberts
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 7 O. Bouda
- 23 E. Löwen
- 11 T. Werner
- 19 P. Judd
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 33 K. Thompson
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 12 J. Atencio
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 32 D. Phillip
Substitutes
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 3 P. Marie
- 4 D. Romney
- 6 I. Harkes
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 25 M. Floriani
- 9 L. Jovanovic
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 16 A. Harris
- 21 T. Ku-Dipietro
- 24 N. Cobb
- 77 D. Yapi
- 99 J. Travis
- 31 A. Beaudry
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