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New York City – CF Montréal1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.92
Total xG
2.91
CF Montréal
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Hannes Wolf on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ríos on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matty Longstaff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luca Petrasso on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Noah Streit on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Efraín Morales on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 50% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: New York City averages 1.81 goals per home game in the league, while CF Montréal concedes 2.69 per away game
- Standings: New York City is 12th in the league with 38 points, while CF Montréal sits 15th with 25 points
Risks
- Head-to-head: CF Montréal has won 4 of the 5 direct meetings against New York City
All probabilities
Result
New York City58%
Draw25%
CF Montréal18%
Double chance
New York City or draw82%
CF Montréal or draw42%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 0.99, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- New York City: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- CF Montréal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
Lineups
New York City 4-3-3 · CF Montréal 4-2-3-1
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 32 J. Shore
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 9 B. Traore
CF Montréal
- 41 S. Keita
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 5 B. Craig
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 28 V. Radojević
- 6 S. Piette
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 29 O. Escobar
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
Substitutes
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 17 H. Wolf
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 55 K. Alexander Parks
- 3 M. Miazga
- 27 C. Flax
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
- 17 D. Sealy
- 1 S. Breza
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 22 V. Loturi
- 23 N. Streit
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 21 F. Herbers
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