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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - Chicago Fire

08/29/2026, 08:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Chicago Fire
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SSCF

Seattle Sounders

Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap)
-0.14
Osaze De Rosario on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Chicago Fire

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.01
Jonathan Bamba on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Seattle Sounders: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 10 total)

  • 4
    Chicago Fire: 39% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (9 of 23)

  • 5
    Seattle Sounders: 9 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Seattle Sounders: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: Chicago Fire recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches, while Seattle failed to win a single game during this period
  • Tactical profile: Seattle recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match with 44.4% ball possession
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model favors 3rd-placed Chicago Fire with an away win probability of 39%
Risk Factors
  • Offensive stagnation: Seattle's goal production has dropped significantly to 0.6 goals per game recently, compared to a season average of 1.2
  • Defensive vulnerability: Chicago Fire concedes an average of 1.67 goals per away match
  • Limited dataset: The provided dataset contains no performance records for Chicago Fire on artificial turf
Overview

Seattle Sounders host Chicago Fire at Lumen Field

Major League Soccer match on August 29, 2026, 8:30 PM

Seattle Sounders currently sit in 13th place with 25 points

Chicago Fire travel as the 3rd-placed team with 36 points

The visitors enter the match as slight favorites

Form

Seattle Sounders form: LLLLD

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The home team took only one point from their last five matches

Seattle's goal production is stalling with 0.6 recent goals compared to a season average of 1.2

Chicago Fire form: LWWWD

The visitors recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches

Chicago's goal production is also stalling with 1.6 recent goals compared to a season average of 2.0

Statistics

Seattle Sounders score an average of 1.1 goals and concede 1.35 goals per game this season

At home, Seattle averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded

Chicago Fire average 1.85 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match

Away from home, the visitors average 1.89 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 14 out of 20 matches for Chicago Fire this season

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match recorded in the database

Seattle Sounders won this home game 2-1 on June 30, 2024

The historical goal difference stands at 2-1 in favor of the home team

Key Players

Albert RusnƔk with 3 goals and 6 assists, averaging a season rating of 7.12

Paul Rothrock has scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Kalani Kossa-Rienzi recorded 3 goals with a season average rating of 6.89

Philip Zinckernagel already contributed 5 goals and 8 assists for the visitors

Robert Lewandowski scored 3 goals in his 6 appearances this season

Maren Haile-Selassie has registered 4 season goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Andrew Thomas has recorded 5 clean sheets for Seattle Sounders this season

Chris Brady has kept 6 clean sheets for Chicago Fire this campaign

In home matches, Andrew Thomas achieved 1 clean sheet so far

Chris Brady has recorded 2 clean sheets on the road this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Seattle Sounders hold a home record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses on this surface

An average of 4.2 goals per game was scored in the last 5 matches at Lumen Field

Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 matches at Seattle's home stadium

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