Match report ā
Seattle Sounders ā Chicago Fire2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Seattle Sounders
1.29
Total xG
2.74
Chicago Fire
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Seattle Sounders | Chicago Fire |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | ā0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average) | ā0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 3, 10 places gap) | ā0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | ā0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 13, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Osaze De Rosario on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jonathan Bamba on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form gap: Chicago Fire recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches, while Seattle failed to win a single game during this period
- Tactical profile: Seattle recently averaged only 3.0 shots on target per match with 44.4% ball possession
- Model prediction: The mathematical model favors 3rd-placed Chicago Fire with an away win probability of 39%
Risks
- Offensive stagnation: Seattle's goal production has dropped significantly to 0.6 goals per game recently, compared to a season average of 1.2
- Defensive vulnerability: Chicago Fire concedes an average of 1.67 goals per away match
- Limited dataset: The provided dataset contains no performance records for Chicago Fire on artificial turf
All probabilities
Result
Seattle Sounders32%
Draw29%
Chicago Fire39%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Seattle Sounders or draw61%
Chicago Fire or draw68%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 10 total)
- Chicago Fire: 39% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (9 of 23)
- Seattle Sounders: 9 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 Ā· Chicago Fire 4-3-3
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 20 K. Kim
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 5 N. Tolo
- 37 S. Brunell
- 16 A. Roldan
- 90 S. Gomez
- 11 A. RusnƔk
- 14 P. Rothrock
- 9 D. JoveljiÄ
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 5 S. Rogers
- 3 J. Elliott
- 15 A. Gutman
- 6 A. SalƩtros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 17 R. Lod
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
Substitutes
- 7 C. Roldan
- 19 D. Musovski
- 24 S. Frei
- 31 H. Dotson
- 35 A. Lopez
- 13 J. Morris
- 4 R. Sailor
- 16 J. Waterman
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 14 V. RadojeviÄ
- 19 J. Bamba
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 47 S. Williams
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account ā