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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Orlando City

09/26/2026, 11:30 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
2.5
Total xG
3.7
Orlando City
1.2
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
PUOC

Philadelphia Union

Attack strength (1.36x league average)
+1.12
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match)
+0.52
Rising form (3.8 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.52
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.07
Cavan Sullivan on the bench (7 goals, 5 assists)
Frankie Westfield on the bench (0 goals, 7 assists)
Danley Jean Jacques on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Neil Pierre on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Orlando City

Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.19
Justin Ellis on the bench (1 goals, 9 assists)
Griffin Dorsey not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
David Brekalo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Philadelphia Union: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 2
    Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Orlando City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Philadelphia Union: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (12 of 34)

  • 6
    Orlando City: 72% of all goals in the second half (18 of 25, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

64%

Draw

20%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

36%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

66%

No

34%

Key Factors
  • Strong form trend: Philadelphia Union scores 3.8 goals on average in recent matches, significantly higher than their season average of 2.1
  • High offensive threat: Philadelphia Union averaged 6.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Mathematical advantage: The prediction model calculates a home win probability of 64%
Risk Factors
  • Weakened squad for Philadelphia Union: Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield, Danley Jean Jacques, and Neil Pierre are missing, leaving only 72% of the regular starting lineup strength
  • Defensive vulnerability of Orlando City: The visitors concede an average of 3.31 goals per away match this season
  • Inexperienced goalkeeper: Andrew Rick has only made one appearance in goal for Philadelphia Union this season
Overview

Philadelphia Union (6th place, 36 points) host Orlando City (7th place, 34 points) at Subaru Park

Major League Soccer match on September 26, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct mid-table clash for crucial playoff spots

Form

Philadelphia Union is in perfect form with 5 wins (WWWWW)

The team secured 5 consecutive wins in the league recently

Orlando City recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (DWWWL)

The away side recently suffered a defeat

Statistics

Philadelphia Union averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded per game

Their home record stands at 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match

Orlando City scores an average of 1.77 goals and concedes 2.31 goals per game

On the road, the visitors concede an average of 3.31 goals per game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in history

Orlando City secured 3 wins, Philadelphia Union 1 win, and 1 draw

The last encounter ended in a 4-3 victory for Orlando City on May 13, 2026

The overall goal difference is 11:10 in favor of Philadelphia Union

Key Players

Milan Iloski has scored 13 season goals and provided 2 assists

Bruno Damiani found the net 8 times this season and added 2 assists

Kai Wagner impresses in defense with an average rating of 7.20

MartĂ­n Ojeda leads the visitors with 12 goals and 1 assist this season

Antoine Griezmann has already scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists in 10 games

IvĂĄn Angulo recorded 4 goals and 4 assists in 26 appearances

Goalkeepers

Andrew Rick has only made 1 appearance in goal for Philadelphia Union this season

Maxime Crépeau played 25 matches for Orlando City with an average rating of 6.82

Philadelphia Union has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Orlando City currently stands at 4 clean sheets

Influences

Subaru Park features a grass surface

The venue averages 3.4 total goals per match

Home advantage is reflected in 1.9 goals scored and only 1.1 conceded per game

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