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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Cincinnati

09/26/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Cincinnati
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CMCIN

CF Montréal

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.25
Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.25
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.10
Gennadiy Synchuk not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Brayan Vera not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

Cincinnati

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.29
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Kévin Denkey not in squad (14 goals, 4 assists)
Pavel Bucha not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
Ender Echenique not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
A. Chirilă not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Cincinnati: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

  • 3
    Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)

  • 4
    Cincinnati: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (80', 82', 90+5')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Defensive struggle on the road: Cincinnati concedes an astronomical average of 4.11 goals per away match
  • Key absences for visitors: Cincinnati plays without top scorer Kévin Denkey (14 goals, 4 assists) and midfielder Pavel Bucha
  • Model advantage: The mathematical prediction favors CF Montréal with a 40% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Montréal's poor form with 5 consecutive losses and a struggling offense averaging only 0.4 goals recently
  • Cincinnati's declining goal production averaging 1.2 goals in recent matches compared to their 2.2 season average
Overview

CF Montréal hosts Cincinnati at Stade Saputo

MLS match on September 26, 2026, 11:30 PM

CF Montréal currently sits in 15th place with 21 points

Cincinnati occupies 9th place with 33 points

A lower-table clash with the home side as slight favorites according to the model

Form

CF Montréal enters with a form string of LLLLL

Five defeats in their last five matches highlight a difficult run

Cincinnati arrives with a form string of DLLDD

Two losses and three draws mean the visitors are also searching for a win

Statistics

CF Montréal averages 1.19 goals scored and 2.04 goals conceded per match this season

At home, Montréal averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

Cincinnati averages 2.16 goals scored and 2.44 goals conceded overall

On the road, Cincinnati scores a strong 2.22 goals but concedes an extreme average of 4.11 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Cincinnati has won 4 times, compared to 1 victory for CF Montréal

Cincinnati leads the goal tally with 15 goals scored against 7 conceded

Their last direct encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 3-4 win for Cincinnati

Key Players

Prince Owusu leads Montréal's attack with 13 goals and 6 assists this season

Matty Longstaff contributes from midfield with 2 goals and a 6.94 average rating

Daniel Ríos provides offensive support with 4 goals in 22 league games

Evander is Cincinnati's star man with 13 goals, 10 assists, and a 7.93 rating

Kenji Mboma Dem has recorded 5 goals and 1 assist so far this season

Tom Barlow adds firepower with 6 goals and 2 assists in 25 appearances

Goalkeepers

Sébastian Breza guards the net for Montréal and has recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Breza shows a rising form trend with a 7.06 rating over his recent games

Roman Celentano has made 23 appearances for Cincinnati, keeping 2 clean sheets

Celentano shows a declining form trend with a 6.22 rating in his last matches

Influences

Home match advantage at Stade Saputo on a natural grass pitch

Matches at this venue have recently averaged 3.0 goals per game

Montréal is much more stable at home (1.31 goals conceded) than away (2.77)

Cincinnati suffers from extreme defensive vulnerabilities away from home, conceding 4.11 goals on average

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