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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - St. Louis City

08/16/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.9
Total xG
3.2
St. Louis City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SESLC

SJ Earthquakes

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.14
Attack strength (1.4x league average)
+0.11
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
Jack Skahan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.6 vs 2.1 goals/match)

St. Louis City

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.26
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.06
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.01
Marcel Hartel not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 82% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes with Jack Jasinski: 2 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    St. Louis City: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 2.4 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

25%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Opposing form trends: SJ Earthquakes are struggling with a LWLDL run, whereas St. Louis City is unbeaten in 5 matches (WWWWD)
  • Strong offensive focus: Both teams show active forward play, averaging 5.4 (home) and 5.6 (away) shots on target per match in recent games
  • High expectation of goals: Mathematical models calculate a 63% probability for Over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score
Risk Factors
  • Squad impact for the visitors: Key player Marcel Hartel (6 goals, 3 assists) is missing from the lineup
  • Defensive vulnerability for Earthquakes: San Jose conceded 2.6 goals per game in recent matches, well above their season average of 1.33
  • St. Louis City's defensive leak on the road: The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals per away match
Overview

SJ Earthquakes host St. Louis City at PayPal Park

Major League Soccer match on August 16, 2026, 4:30 AM

SJ Earthquakes are in 3rd place with 33 points

St. Louis City sits in 7th place with 26 points

A crucial clash for playoff positions

Form

SJ Earthquakes are struggling with a form of LWLDL

Recent record shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

St. Louis City is in excellent shape with a WWWWD run

The visitors are unbeaten in their last 5 matches

(Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.06 goals per game

At home, this average rises to 2.12 goals per match

St. Louis City scores an average of 1.33 goals per game this season

However, the visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals when playing away

In 11 out of 18 matches for both teams, both sides found the net

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches so far

St. Louis City dominates the record with 4 wins to 1

The goal difference stands at 6:11 against the Earthquakes

The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for San Jose Earthquakes

The historical dominance lies with the visitors

Key Players

Preston Judd leads the team with 11 goals and 3 assists

Timo Werner contributes strong performances with 5 goals and 4 assists

Daniel Munie solidifies the defensive line with a 6.96 average rating

Simon Becher is currently in good form, averaging 7.10 recently

Tomas Totland shines in defense with 2 assists in his last 5 appearances

Eduard Löwen contributes 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Angus Gunn has guarded the goal 3 times so far this season

SJ Earthquakes have achieved 5 clean sheets in this campaign

Roman Bürki has played 16 matches in goal for the visitors

St. Louis City have recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Influences

PayPal Park features a natural grass surface providing top conditions

Historically, matches at this stadium average 4 goals per game

The historical over 2.5 rate at this venue stands at 80%

Both teams scored in 60% of past matches at PayPal Park

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