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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Dallas

09/10/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Dallas
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
MUDAL

Minnesota United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.08

Dallas

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.53
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.18
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.12
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Petar Musa on the bench (18 goals, 4 assists)
Santiago Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Herman Johansson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Dallas is missing key players Petar Musa (18 goals, 4 assists) and Santiago Moreno (2 goals, 2 assists)
  • Minnesota United scores more frequently recently (2.8 goals average) compared to their season average (1.6)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 43% probability
Risk Factors
  • Both defenses are highly vulnerable, conceding over 1.5 goals on average per game
  • Dallas is weakened offensively by the absence of top goalscorers Musa and Moreno
Overview

Minnesota United (11th place, 29 points) host Dallas (4th place, 37 points)

Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 2:30 AM

Minnesota aims to close the gap while Dallas wants to stay near the top

Form

Minnesota United form: DLWDL

Last match ended in a 4-5 loss against Portland Timbers

Dallas displays a stronger form: WWLDW

Last match ended in a 4-3 win against Sporting KC

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Minnesota averages 1.48 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per match

At home Minnesota averages 1.57 goals scored

Dallas averages a strong 1.92 goals scored on the road

Dallas concedes an average of 1.75 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in the database

Minnesota United won 2 times, Dallas won 1 time

2 matches ended in a draw

The last direct encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Minnesota United

Key Players

Kelvin Yeboah has 11 goals and 2 assists this season

Joaquín Pereyra contributed 3 goals and 9 assists so far

Anthony Markanich Jr. is dangerous from defense with 7 goals

Goalkeepers

Drake Callender guards Minnesota's goal with a season rating of 6.82

Jonathan Sirois starts for Dallas and holds a season rating of 7.20

Minnesota secured 5 clean sheets this season

Dallas kept 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on grass at Allianz Field

The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of the last 5 home games

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