Match report →
Minnesota United – Dallas1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.38
Total xG
2.44
Dallas
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.35 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Petar Musa on the bench (18 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Santiago Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Herman Johansson on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Dallas is missing key players Petar Musa (18 goals, 4 assists) and Santiago Moreno (2 goals, 2 assists)
- Minnesota United scores more frequently recently (2.8 goals average) compared to their season average (1.6)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 43% probability
Risks
- Both defenses are highly vulnerable, conceding over 1.5 goals on average per game
- Dallas is weakened offensively by the absence of top goalscorers Musa and Moreno
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United42%
Draw30%
Dallas27%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw73%
Dallas or draw58%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
Minnesota United 3-4-1-2 · Dallas 5-4-1
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 3 K. Duncan
- 25 N. Triantis
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 9 K. Yeboah
Dallas
- 40 J. Sirois
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 12 C. Cappis
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 23 L. Farrington
Substitutes
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 30 O. Géne
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 33 K. Chandler
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 14 H. Johansson
- 28 S. Sarver
- 30 M. Collodi
- 32 N. Norris
- 24 J. Torquato
- 10 S. Moreno
- 33 C. Holstad
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