Match report →
CF Montréal – Charlotte1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.48
Total xG
2.81
Charlotte
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Noah Streit on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical setup: Charlotte averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Form gap: Charlotte are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) while CF Montréal's goal production has stalled with a negative form trend
- Mathematical model: The calculated probability for a home win is 39% and the chance for an away win is 33%
Risks
- Hosts' defensive weakness: CF Montréal conceded an average of 2.09 goals per game this season
- Away defense issues: Charlotte concede an average of 2.38 goals in away games
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal39%
Draw28%
Charlotte33%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw67%
Charlotte or draw61%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Charlotte: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-2-3-1 · Charlotte 4-3-3
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 5 B. Craig
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 22 V. Loturi
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 17 D. Sealy
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 22 F. Kessler
- 3 T. Ream
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 28 D. Diani
- 11 L. Abada
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
Substitutes
- 6 S. Piette
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 23 N. Streit
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 29 O. Escobar
- 31 T. Guilier
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 35 O. Graham-Roache
- 21 F. Herbers
- 21 T. Miller
- 4 A. Privett
- 9 Idan Toklomati
- 13 B. Bronico
- 25 T. Smalls
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 37 R. Aloko
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 35 W. Cleary
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