Match report →
New York City – New York RB0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.65
Total xG
3.03
New York RB
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.11 | |
| M. Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Emil Forsberg on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 94% available) |
Key factors
- New York RB is missing key goal threat as Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals) and Emil Forsberg (3 goals, 4 assists) are not nominated
- Major gap between New York City's home performance and Red Bulls' away struggles, with the visitors conceding an average of 2.27 goals on the road
- The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 42% probability and projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts
Risks
- Both teams have struggled for goals recently, with New York City averaging 1.25 goals and New York RB just 0.75 goals in recent matches
- New York City faces squad depth issues with 5 players out injured, including M. Moralez (1 goal, 6 assists)
- New York City averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
New York City42%
Draw27%
New York RB31%
Double chance
New York City or draw69%
New York RB or draw58%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
- New York City: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)
Lineups
New York City 4-2-3-1 · New York RB 4-3-3
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 17 H. Wolf
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 26 T. Parker
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 17 C. Harper
- 16 J. Hall
- 7 C. Cowell
Substitutes
- 9 B. Traore
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 6 R. Voloder
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 59 D. Padelford
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 92 D. Nelich
- 60 S. Kone
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