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Major League Soccer

New York City - New York RB

09/18/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
New York City
1.6
Total xG
3.0
New York RB
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYCNYR

New York City

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.11
M. Moralez not in squad (1 goals, 6 assists)

New York RB

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
Emil ForsbergĀ  on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 94% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 2
    New York City: 31% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

27%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • New York RB is missing key goal threat as Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals) and Emil Forsberg (3 goals, 4 assists) are not nominated
  • Major gap between New York City's home performance and Red Bulls' away struggles, with the visitors conceding an average of 2.27 goals on the road
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win with a 42% probability and projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts
Risk Factors
  • Both teams have struggled for goals recently, with New York City averaging 1.25 goals and New York RB just 0.75 goals in recent matches
  • New York City faces squad depth issues with 5 players out injured, including M. Moralez (1 goal, 6 assists)
  • New York City averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

New York City FC host New York Red Bulls at Yankee Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 18, 2026, 11:30 PM

Derby match in the mid-table between 8th and 10th place

Form

New York City ended their winless streak with an away win (Form: DDDLW, W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

New York Red Bulls also showed rising form in their latest match (Form: DLDLW)

Both teams won their last game after several winless weeks

Statistics

New York City score an average of 1.56 goals and concede 1.32 goals per game

New York RB concede a very high average of 2.27 goals per away game

Yankee Stadium averaged 2.8 goals per game in recent venue matches

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent years show a tendency for the home team

New York City recorded 3 wins, New York RB got 1 win and there was 1 draw

The last head-to-head match ended in a 1-1 draw on May 16, 2026

Key Players

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau shines in midfield with 15 goals and 4 assists this season

AgustĆ­n Ojeda contributed 5 goals and 8 assists for the home side

Julian Hall is the most dangerous attacker for Red Bulls with 9 goals

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Ethan Horvath has 3 clean sheets so far in this campaign

Influences

The game will be played on natural grass at Yankee Stadium

New York City scored 26 goals in 17 home matches in front of their fans

The visitors conceded 25 goals in just 11 away games

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