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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - Houston Dynamo

08/23/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.4
Total xG
2.3
Houston Dynamo
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SLCHD

St. Louis City

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.53
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.12
Eduard Löwen on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Lukas MacNaughton on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Chris Durkin on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.82
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.16
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.10
Guilherme on the bench (12 goals, 5 assists)
HĂ©ctor Herrera on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
54% of goal output missing (only 54% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 3
    St. Louis City: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Houston Dynamo: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    St. Louis City: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Severe squad impact for the visitors: Only 55% of the regular goal threat is available, with Guilherme and HĂ©ctor Herrera missing
  • Possession dominance: St. Louis City recently dominated matches, averaging 57% possession and 5.0 shots on target
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: St. Louis City concedes only 0.91 goals at home, whereas Houston allows 1.55 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this crucial match with just 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Missing key elements: Houston Dynamo must cope without Guilherme, potentially weakening their defensive balance
  • Low scoring expectancy: The mathematical model predicts a low 39% probability for over 2.5 goals
Overview

St. Louis City (6th place, 30 points) hosts Houston Dynamo (1st place, 38 points)

Major League Soccer match on August 23, 2026, 2:30 AM at Energizer Park

A clash between the in-form home side and the league leaders

Form

St. Louis City shows stable form with a "WWDWD" record

Houston Dynamo travels with a perfect five-game winning streak ("WWWWW")

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Both teams remain undefeated in their last five matches

Statistics

St. Louis City scores an average of 1.4 goals and concedes 1.3 goals per game

At home, their defense is solid, conceding just 0.91 goals per match

Houston Dynamo concedes an average of 1.55 goals away from home while scoring 1.45

Houston kept 9 clean sheets this season, including 4 on the road

Head-to-Head

Houston Dynamo won 2 of the 4 previous head-to-head matches

St. Louis City recorded 1 victory, with 1 match ending in a draw

The last encounter on August 31, 2025, ended in a 3-2 away win for Houston Dynamo

Key Players

Simon Becher scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, with 4 goals and 4 assists this season

Tomas Totland provided 3 assists in his last 5 appearances

Not nominated for St. Louis City: Eduard Löwen, Lukas MacNaughton, Chris Durkin

Goalkeepers

Roman BĂŒrki has 18 season appearances for St. Louis City with 3 clean sheets

Jonathan Bond kept 9 clean sheets in 20 appearances this season

Bond shows strong form with an average rating of 7.30 in his last 5 matches

Influences

Energizer Park features a natural grass surface for this matchup

Matches at this venue average 2.6 goals with a 60% both teams to score rate

Home advantage plays a key role as St. Louis concedes only 0.91 goals per home game

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