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SJ Earthquakes – Houston Dynamo1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
SJ Earthquakes
1.40
Total xG
2.60
Houston Dynamo
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | SJ Earthquakes | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Reid Roberts on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Jack McGlynn not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Héctor Herrera on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Agustín Bouzat on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup focus: SJ Earthquakes' strong home attack meets Houston Dynamo's weaker away defense, which concedes 1.46 goals per game
- Tactical dominance: SJ Earthquakes recently averaged 55% possession and 4.6 shots on target per match
- High-scoring venue: PayPal Park matches have averaged 4.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Missing key players: Houston Dynamo is without Jack McGlynn (2 goals, 5 assists) and Héctor Herrera (2 goals)
- Home form dip: SJ Earthquakes show a negative form trend, scoring fewer goals (1.25) recently than their season average (1.79)
All probabilities
Result
SJ Earthquakes40%
Draw30%
Houston Dynamo31%
Double chance
SJ Earthquakes or draw69%
Houston Dynamo or draw60%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- SJ Earthquakes: 44% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 16)
- SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- SJ Earthquakes: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 12 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1 · Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 23 E. Löwen
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 34 B. Leroux
- 7 O. Bouda
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 5 L. Halter
- 34 A. Resch
- 11 L. Ennali
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
- 23 D. McGuire
Substitutes
- 3 P. Marie
- 6 I. Harkes
- 16 J. Skahan
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 40 J. González Mendoza
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 31 F. Montali
- 21 N. Buck
- 9 L. Jovanovic
- 17 N. Markanich
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 14 D. Holmes
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 21 F. Negri
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 37 G. Rivera
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