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Major League Soccer

SJ Earthquakes - Houston Dynamo

09/13/2026, 02:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
SJ Earthquakes
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Houston Dynamo
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SEHD

SJ Earthquakes

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.19
Reid Roberts on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.20
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.14
Jack McGlynn  not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists)
Héctor Herrera on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Agustín Bouzat on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 8 of 10 games (80%)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 44% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 16)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 69% of all goals in the first half (11 of 16, last 12 games)

  • 5
    SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Matchup focus: SJ Earthquakes' strong home attack meets Houston Dynamo's weaker away defense, which concedes 1.46 goals per game
  • Tactical dominance: SJ Earthquakes recently averaged 55% possession and 4.6 shots on target per match
  • High-scoring venue: PayPal Park matches have averaged 4.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Missing key players: Houston Dynamo is without Jack McGlynn (2 goals, 5 assists) and Héctor Herrera (2 goals)
  • Home form dip: SJ Earthquakes show a negative form trend, scoring fewer goals (1.25) recently than their season average (1.79)
Overview

SJ Earthquakes (5th place, 38 points) host Houston Dynamo (2nd place, 43 points) at PayPal Park

Major League Soccer match on September 13, 2026, 4:30 AM

Top-tier clash with a slight advantage for the home team

Form

SJ Earthquakes show an inconsistent form of LLDDW in their last five matches

The home team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Houston Dynamo travel with a form of WLDDW

The visitors registered 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches

Statistics

SJ Earthquakes average 1.79 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match this season

At home, their average is 1.73 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded

Houston Dynamo average 1.33 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded

Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 1.46 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Five head-to-head matches in history

Houston Dynamo celebrated 2 wins, while SJ Earthquakes won 1 match

Two matches ended in a draw

The last meeting on August 30, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Niko Tsakiris has 3 goals and 7 assists this season

Beau Leroux recorded 4 goals and 4 assists

Ousseni Bouda scored 6 goals so far

Guilherme is the most dangerous player for the visitors with 13 goals and 6 assists

Mateusz Bogusz contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

Lawrence Ennali has 3 goals and 3 assists

Goalkeepers

Angus Gunn guards the goal for SJ Earthquakes with 3 home clean sheets this season

Jonathan Bond is in goal for Houston Dynamo and kept 5 away clean sheets

Influences

Home advantage for SJ Earthquakes at PayPal Park on grass

Stadium statistics show high-scoring games with an average of 4.2 goals per match

Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of these matches

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