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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - Columbus Crew

08/23/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Columbus Crew
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NSCC

Nashville SC

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Full strength squad available

Columbus Crew

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
DƔniel Gazdag on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Dylan Chambost on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
68% of goal output missing (only 43% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Columbus Crew: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Columbus Crew with Sekou Tidiany Bangoura: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

29%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Only 43% of goal threat available without DĆ”niel Gazdag, Dylan Chambost
  • League leaders Nashville SC face Columbus Crew who struggle defensively with 2 goals conceded per away match
  • The mathematical model estimates a home win probability of 38%
Risk Factors
  • Nashville SC's goal scoring has slowed down recently, averaging 1.6 goals compared to the seasonal average of 2.2
  • Columbus Crew concedes 2 goals per away game on average
Overview

Nashville SC (1st place, 46 points) host Columbus Crew (12th place, 20 points) at GEODIS Park

Major League Soccer match on August 23, 2026, 2:30 AM

The league leaders face the 12th-placed team

Form

Nashville SC is in WLDWW form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches

Columbus Crew is in LWDLL form with 3 losses in their last 5 matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nashville SC scores an average of 2 goals and concedes 0.75 goals per game

Columbus Crew scores an average of 1.4 goals and concedes 1.65 goals per game

Away from home Columbus Crew concedes an average of 2 goals per match

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in total

Nashville SC won 2 times, Columbus Crew won 1 time with 2 draws

The last direct meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Nashville SC

Key Players

Sam Surridge has scored 12 goals so far this season

Hany Mukhtar registered 8 goals and 4 assists

Cristian Espinoza contributed 3 goals and 8 assists

Taha Habroune recorded 1 goal and 2 assists for the visitors

Cesar Ruvalcaba holds an average rating of 7.05

Mohamed Farsi assisted 2 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Brian Schwake holds a season average rating of 7.08

Patrick Schulte has an average rating of 6.64

Nashville SC secured 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at GEODIS Park

Historically the stadium averages 3 goals per game

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