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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - CF Montréal

09/13/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
2.1
Total xG
3.0
CF Montréal
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
CRCM

Colorado Rapids

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.45
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.08
Rafael Navarro not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists)
Wayne Frederick on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Youssef Maziz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Reggie Cannon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 69% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

CF Montréal

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Matty Longstaff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Luca Petrasso on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Brayan Vera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Gennadiy Synchuk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

23%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model predicts a solid home win probability of 63%
  • Extreme gap between Colorado's exceptionally solid home defense (0.56 conceded) and Montréal's fragile away defense (2.92 conceded)
  • CF Montréal averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches but must break down a highly organized home defense
Risk Factors
  • Colorado Rapids have a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Crucial lineup absences for Colorado: Rafael Navarro, Wayne Frederick, Youssef Maziz, and Reggie Cannon are missing, leaving only 70% of their goal threat active
  • Colorado's offense has stalled lately, averaging just 0.6 goals and 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Colorado Rapids host CF Montréal at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Major League Soccer match on September 13, 2026, 3:30 AM

Colorado (7th place, 32 points) enter as favorites against Montréal (15th place, 21 points)

Form

Colorado show mixed form with WLWLD in their last matches

Their recent record includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Montréal are struggling with a WDLLL form, ending on 3 consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Colorado average 1.31 goals scored and only 0.56 goals conceded per home game

Montréal have a weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.92 goals per game

In 16 home matches, the Rapids kept 6 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

That match on June 23, 2024, ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Colorado Rapids

Key Players

Paxten Aaronson contributed 5 goals and 5 assists this season

Darren Yapi has recorded 3 goals and 2 assists so far

Prince Owusu is the main threat for the visitors with 13 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Nicolas Hansen plays in goal for Colorado with an average rating of 7.01

Sébastian Breza guards the net for Montréal with an average rating of 6.67

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Dick's Sporting Goods Park

The last 5 home games at this venue averaged only 1.2 total goals

None of those 5 matches saw both teams score

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