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Colorado Rapids – CF Montréal1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
2.08
Total xG
2.99
CF Montréal
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.45 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Rafael Navarro not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Wayne Frederick on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Youssef Maziz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Reggie Cannon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 69% available) | ||
| Matty Longstaff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Luca Petrasso on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Brayan Vera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Gennadiy Synchuk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a solid home win probability of 63%
- Extreme gap between Colorado's exceptionally solid home defense (0.56 conceded) and Montréal's fragile away defense (2.92 conceded)
- CF Montréal averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches but must break down a highly organized home defense
Risks
- Colorado Rapids have a physical disadvantage with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Crucial lineup absences for Colorado: Rafael Navarro, Wayne Frederick, Youssef Maziz, and Reggie Cannon are missing, leaving only 70% of their goal threat active
- Colorado's offense has stalled lately, averaging just 0.6 goals and 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids63%
Draw23%
CF Montréal14%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw86%
CF Montréal or draw37%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colorado Rapids: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-3-3 · CF Montréal 4-3-3
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 12 J. Atencio
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 32 D. Phillip
- 77 D. Yapi
- 93 G. Minoungou
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 2 J. Neal
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 28 V. Radojević
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 6 S. Piette
- 22 V. Loturi
- 17 D. Sealy
- 9 P. Owusu
- 23 N. Streit
Substitutes
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 99 J. Travis
- 33 K. Thompson
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 94 V. Rinaldi
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 41 S. Keita
- 21 F. Herbers
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