šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Cincinnati - Seattle Sounders

08/22/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Cincinnati
1.8
Total xG
3.0
Seattle Sounders
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CINSS

Cincinnati

Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)

Seattle Sounders

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.11
Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.06
JesĆŗs Ferreira not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders with Stuart Hawkins: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

26%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Huge form discrepancy: Cincinnati won 3 of their last 5 games (WLWDW), while Seattle lost all of their last 5 matches (LLLLL)
  • Cincinnati recently averaged 6.2 shots on target per game, compared to Seattle's average of only 3.0
  • Cincinnati scores an average of 2.5 goals per game at home, totaling 30 home goals in 12 matches
Risk Factors
  • Cincinnati with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Seattle Sounders with only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Seasonal defensive vulnerability of Cincinnati with an average of 2.3 goals conceded per game
Overview

Cincinnati host Seattle Sounders at TQL Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 22, 2026, 11:30 PM

Cincinnati occupy 5th place with 30 points while Seattle Sounders are in 13th place with 24 points

Form

Cincinnati show a stable form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Their recent form string is WLWDW

Seattle Sounders are in a crisis with 5 consecutive losses

Their form string is LLLLL

Explanation of form codes: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cincinnati score an average of 2.4 goals per game this season and concede 2.3 goals

In home matches their scoring average rises to 2.5 goals scored per game

Seattle Sounders score an average of 1.11 goals per game and concede 1.37 goals

In away matches Seattle have scored 7 goals in 6 games

Key Players

Evander has recorded 12 goals and 10 assists with an average rating of 8.01

KĆ©vin Denkey has scored 11 goals and provided 3 assists this season

Pavel Bucha has contributed 5 goals and 4 assists so far

Albert RusnƔk has recorded 3 goals and 5 assists with a rating of 7.12

Paul Rothrock has scored 5 goals and provided 1 assist

Kalani Kossa-Rienzi has scored 2 goals with an average rating of 6.85

Not nominated: JesĆŗs Ferreira (2 goals and 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Roman Celentano guards the goal for Cincinnati with an average rating of 6.91 and has recorded 2 clean sheets so far

Andrew Thomas plays in goal for Seattle Sounders with an average rating of 6.97 and has kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place at TQL Stadium on grass

The historical home record at the stadium shows an extremely high-scoring character with an average of 6.4 goals per game

In all 5 recorded home matches both teams scored and more than 2.5 goals were scored each time

Cincinnati benefit from a strong home record averaging 2.5 goals scored per home game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.