Match report →
Inter Miami – CF Montréal7 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
2.12
Total xG
3.59
CF Montréal
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.4 season average) | −0.32 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| M. Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ríos on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Miami's dominant home attack of 2.44 goals per game faces Montréal's weak away defense conceding 2.6 goals on average
- Sustained offensive quality: Despite M. Silvetti's injury, Inter Miami retain 92% of their season goal production with Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez leading the line
- Tactical threat: CF Montréal averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a significant test for Miami's defense
Risks
- Dip in form: Inter Miami exhibit a negative recent trend with only one victory in their last five competitive matches
- Vulnerable home defense: Miami concede a high average of 2.11 goals per match in front of their home crowd
- Squad limitations for Montréal: Attackers Daniel Ríos (3 goals) and Victor Loturi (1 goal) are missing from the lineup
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami51%
Draw23%
CF Montréal26%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw74%
CF Montréal or draw49%
No draw77%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
7:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · CF Montréal 4-3-3
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 32 N. Allen
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 10 L. Messi
- 19 G. Berterame
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
CF Montréal
- 31 T. Guilier
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 2 J. Neal
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 6 S. Piette
- 21 F. Herbers
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 9 P. Owusu
- 23 N. Streit
Substitutes
- 4 F. Mura
- 22 D. Ayala
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 56 D. Pintér
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 54 L. Delinois
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 17 D. Sealy
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 1 S. Breza
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 22 V. Loturi
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
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