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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - CF Montréal

08/29/2026, 11:30 PM

7 : 1
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
2.1
Total xG
3.6
CF Montréal
1.5
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
IMCM

Inter Miami

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.4 season average)
-0.32
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.31
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.17
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.11
M. Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)

CF Montréal

Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Daniel Ríos on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    Inter Miami: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

23%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

31%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 3.5

52%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • Matchup advantage: Miami's dominant home attack of 2.44 goals per game faces Montréal's weak away defense conceding 2.6 goals on average
  • Sustained offensive quality: Despite M. Silvetti's injury, Inter Miami retain 92% of their season goal production with Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez leading the line
  • Tactical threat: CF Montréal averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a significant test for Miami's defense
Risk Factors
  • Dip in form: Inter Miami exhibit a negative recent trend with only one victory in their last five competitive matches
  • Vulnerable home defense: Miami concede a high average of 2.11 goals per match in front of their home crowd
  • Squad limitations for Montréal: Attackers Daniel Ríos (3 goals) and Victor Loturi (1 goal) are missing from the lineup
Overview

Inter Miami host CF Montréal at the Chase Stadium

Major League Soccer fixture on August 29, 2026, 11:30 PM

Second-placed Inter Miami with 39 points face 13th-placed CF Montréal with 21 points

The hosts enter the match as the clear favorites

Form

Inter Miami's recent form is WDLDL with mixed results over the last five games

CF Montréal present a slightly more stable run of form with LDDWD

Inter Miami's goalscoring has slowed down recently to 1.4 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.5

CF Montréal remain highly consistent, averaging 1.4 goals per match

Statistics

Inter Miami average 2.33 goals scored and 1.9 goals conceded per match this season

CF Montréal register 1.38 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded per game

Miami concede an average of 2.11 goals at home while scoring 2.44 goals

Montréal struggle defensively on the road, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

There have been five head-to-head matches in the history of this fixture

Inter Miami dominate the record with four wins compared to just one victory for CF Montréal

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 win for Inter Miami on July 25, 2026

The goal difference in direct duels stands at 14-8 in favor of Miami

Key Players

Lionel Messi shines for the hosts with 14 goals and 9 assists this season

Luis Suárez has contributed an impressive 10 goals and 3 assists so far

Prince Owusu is the main threat for the visitors with 13 goals and 6 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Dayne St. Clair is the starting goalkeeper for Inter Miami with four clean sheets this season

Thomas Guilier will guard the net for CF Montréal in the upcoming match

Both teams have kept exactly four clean sheets throughout the current campaign

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Chase Stadium

The historic goal average at this venue is high, standing at 3.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played at the Chase Stadium so far

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