Match report →
Chicago Fire – Inter Miami1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
1.94
Total xG
3.62
Inter Miami
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.44 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Tactical contrast in attack: Chicago Fire averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession (49%), while Inter Miami dominated possession with 56.2% and averaged 4.8 shots on target
- Outstanding offensive lines on both sides: Chicago scores consistently with a season average of 2.05 goals per game, while Miami operates with an extremely dangerous average of 2.64 goals
- Mathematically high goal probability: The calculation model predicts a 71% probability for BTTS and 70% for over 2.5 goals in this match
Risks
- Miami's defensive weakness on the road: The visitors concede an average of 1.91 goals per away match this season
- Tight schedule for Inter Miami: The team enters this away match with only 4 days of rest since their last competitive game
- Defensive instability for Chicago Fire: The home team conceded four goals in their last match against Toronto during a high-scoring 4-4 draw
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire43%
Draw24%
Inter Miami33%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw67%
Inter Miami or draw57%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Over 3.549%
Under 3.551%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 23)
- Inter Miami: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Inter Miami: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-4-2 · Inter Miami 4-3-1-2
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 32 N. Allen
- 15 A. Gutman
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 D. D'Avilla
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 17 R. Lod
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 17 I. Fray
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 19 G. Berterame
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
Substitutes
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 22 M. Pineda
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 5 S. Rogers
- 29 D. Poręba
- 37 R. Turdean
- 18 J. Gomez
- 4 F. Mura
- 22 D. Ayala
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 56 D. Pintér
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 70 D. Sumalla
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 54 L. Delinois
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