Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire - Inter Miami
09/10/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.6
1.7
2:1
8%1:2
7%2:2
7%3:1
5%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
League
The Lab
- 1Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 2Chicago Fire: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 3Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 5 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 4Chicago Fire: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 23)
- 5Inter Miami: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- 6Inter Miami: 11 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF MontrƩal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
24%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
71%
No
29%
Key Factors
- Tactical contrast in attack: Chicago Fire averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches with balanced possession (49%), while Inter Miami dominated possession with 56.2% and averaged 4.8 shots on target
- Outstanding offensive lines on both sides: Chicago scores consistently with a season average of 2.05 goals per game, while Miami operates with an extremely dangerous average of 2.64 goals
- Mathematically high goal probability: The calculation model predicts a 71% probability for BTTS and 70% for over 2.5 goals in this match
Risk Factors
- Miami's defensive weakness on the road: The visitors concede an average of 1.91 goals per away match this season
- Tight schedule for Inter Miami: The team enters this away match with only 4 days of rest since their last competitive game
- Defensive instability for Chicago Fire: The home team conceded four goals in their last match against Toronto during a high-scoring 4-4 draw
Overview
Top clash in Major League Soccer at Soldier Field
Third-placed Chicago Fire with 38 points host second-placed Inter Miami with 43 points
Match scheduled for September 10, 2026, 2:30 AM
Both teams are fighting to stay close to the top of the table
Form
Chicago Fire is in stable form with a WWDDD record
They are coming off three consecutive draws, including a wild 4-4 against Toronto
Inter Miami shows mixed recent form with an LDLWD record
Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Atlanta United
Statistics
Chicago Fire scores 1.95 goals on average per game and 2.0 in home matches
Inter Miami features a powerful attack averaging 2.52 goals per game
Defensive vulnerabilities exist on both sides with Chicago conceding 1.45 goals and Miami 1.87 on average
Both teams scored in 16 out of 22 matches for Chicago and 18 out of 23 for Miami
Head-to-Head
Five direct duels in total
Inter Miami is the recent dominant team with three wins compared to one for Chicago
The last matchup on July 22, 2026, ended in a 3-2 victory for the away side
Key Players
Maren Haile-Selassie in rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 appearances for 7 goals overall
Robert Lewandowski with 5 goals and 2 assists in just 8 season appearances
Lionel Messi with an outstanding 18 goals and 11 assists this season
Luis SuƔrez with 12 goals and 4 assists as Miami's lethal striker
Goalkeepers
Chris Brady features in goal for Chicago with 6 clean sheets this season
Dayne St. Clair of Inter Miami has recorded 4 clean sheets so far
Influences
Home advantage for Chicago on the grass pitch of Soldier Field
Venue history indicates high-scoring affairs averaging 3.2 total goals per match
All 5 historical matches at this venue saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals