🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Austin - SJ Earthquakes

09/06/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Austin
1.2
Total xG
2.7
SJ Earthquakes
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
AUSSE

Austin

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.66
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Myrto Uzuni not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Brendan Hines-Ike not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

SJ Earthquakes

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.26
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap)
+0.07
Timo Werner not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 82% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (11 points lost)

  • 2
    Austin: 9 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 43% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 14)

  • 5
    Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')

  • 6
    SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

29%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Form difference: Austin collected seven points from their last three games, while the visitors are winless in five matches
  • Austin averaged 4.6 shots on target per match in recent games
  • SJ Earthquakes averaged 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable overall defense for Austin, conceding 1.86 goals per game this season
  • SJ Earthquakes' scoring rate has dropped recently to 1.0 goal per game compared to their 1.9 season average
  • Reduced attacking dynamic for the visitors due to the absence of key forward Timo Werner
Overview

Austin host SJ Earthquakes at the Q2 Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 6, 2026, 2:30 AM

Austin are currently in 14th place with 24 points, while SJ Earthquakes sit in 4th with 34 points

An interesting clash between two teams in different table regions

Form

Austin show stable form with two wins in their last five matches

Form string for Austin: LLWDW

SJ Earthquakes are struggling, remaining winless in their last five outings

Form string for SJ Earthquakes: LLLLD

Statistics

Austin scored 28 goals and conceded 41 in the league this season

SJ Earthquakes hold a more positive goal record of 39 scored and 33 conceded

Austin look much safer at home, conceding just 0.91 goals per game on average

SJ Earthquakes perform well on the road, averaging 1.82 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

Five previous head-to-head matches have been recorded

The direct record is perfectly even with two wins for each side and one draw

Their last meeting ended in a dominant 5-1 victory for SJ Earthquakes on April 23, 2026

Key Players

Facundo Torres is a key creator for Austin with 3 goals and 5 assists this season

Ervin Torres contributed with 1 goal and 2 assists in midfield

Niko Tsakiris shines for the visitors with a strong 7.33 rating and 4 assists

Not selected for Austin: Myrto Uzuni (6 goals, 1 assist) and Brendan Hines-Ike (2 goals)

Not selected for the away team: Timo Werner (6 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Brad Stuver is a reliable goalkeeper for Austin, holding a high season rating of 7.17

Stuver has recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Angus Gunn guards the net for the visitors, carrying a 6.61 average rating from 7 appearances

Influences

The game will take place on natural grass at the Q2 Stadium

Venue stats suggest high scoring with an average of 3.0 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of historical games played at this stadium

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.