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Austin – SJ Earthquakes1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Austin
1.24
Total xG
2.65
SJ Earthquakes
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austin | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.66 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Myrto Uzuni not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brendan Hines-Ike not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 34% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Timo Werner not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form difference: Austin collected seven points from their last three games, while the visitors are winless in five matches
- Austin averaged 4.6 shots on target per match in recent games
- SJ Earthquakes averaged 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Vulnerable overall defense for Austin, conceding 1.86 goals per game this season
- SJ Earthquakes' scoring rate has dropped recently to 1.0 goal per game compared to their 1.9 season average
- Reduced attacking dynamic for the visitors due to the absence of key forward Timo Werner
All probabilities
Result
Austin31%
Draw29%
SJ Earthquakes40%
Double chance
Austin or draw61%
SJ Earthquakes or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (11 points lost)
- Austin: 9 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- SJ Earthquakes: 43% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 14)
- Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')
- SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Austin 3-4-3 · SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 3 M. Desler
- 5 O. Svatok
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 25 M. Floriani
- 5 D. Munie
- 18 R. Roberts
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 23 E. Löwen
- 7 O. Bouda
Substitutes
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 12 D. Las
- 15 J. Bell
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 4 D. Romney
- 6 I. Harkes
- 16 J. Skahan
- 19 P. Judd
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 31 F. Montali
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 9 L. Jovanovic
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