Match report →
Columbus Crew – Colorado Rapids3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
1.10
Total xG
2.04
Colorado Rapids
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −1.00 | |
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | −0.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Taha Habroune on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brais Méndez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Dylan Chambost on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 67% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Rafael Navarro not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Reggie Cannon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Hamzat Ojediran not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dante Sealy not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Restricted attack: Only 53% of regular goal contribution available with Taha Habroune, Brais Méndez and Dylan Chambost missing
- Form discrepancy: While Columbus Crew suffered four consecutive defeats Colorado Rapids won four of their last five matches
- Model prediction: Despite poor form the mathematical model yields a 71% probability for Columbus Crew to win or draw
Risks
- Rafael Navarro, Reggie Cannon, Hamzat Ojediran and Dante Sealy are missing for the visitors, leaving only 69% of regular starting strength
- Low offensive output: Columbus averaged only 2.4 shots on target per game in their recent matches
- Away defensive issues: Colorado Rapids concede an average of 2.71 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew37%
Draw34%
Colorado Rapids29%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw71%
Colorado Rapids or draw63%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Columbus Crew: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Colorado Rapids: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 4-4-2 · Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 11 B. Lennon
- 23 M. Farsi
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 77 J. Martínez
Colorado Rapids
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 24 N. Cobb
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 12 J. Atencio
- 88 Y. Maziz
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 77 D. Yapi
Substitutes
- 3 E. Bailly
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 7 D. Chambost
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 16 T. Habroune
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 4 R. Cannon
- 16 A. Harris
- 99 J. Travis
- 33 K. Thompson
- 32 D. Phillip
- 61 B. Dowd
- 94 V. Rinaldi
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