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Major League Soccer

Columbus Crew - Colorado Rapids

09/05/2026, 11:30 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Columbus Crew
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Colorado Rapids
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
CCCR

Columbus Crew

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-1.00
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Taha Habroune on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Brais MĂ©ndez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Dylan Chambost on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
67% of goal output missing (only 53% available)

Colorado Rapids

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-0.80
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.03
Rafael Navarro not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists)
Reggie Cannon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Hamzat Ojediran not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Dante Sealy not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Columbus Crew: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Columbus Crew: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 3.1 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

  • 4
    Columbus Crew: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)

  • 5
    Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

34%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Restricted attack: Only 53% of regular goal contribution available with Taha Habroune, Brais MĂ©ndez and Dylan Chambost missing
  • Form discrepancy: While Columbus Crew suffered four consecutive defeats Colorado Rapids won four of their last five matches
  • Model prediction: Despite poor form the mathematical model yields a 71% probability for Columbus Crew to win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Rafael Navarro, Reggie Cannon, Hamzat Ojediran and Dante Sealy are missing for the visitors, leaving only 69% of regular starting strength
  • Low offensive output: Columbus averaged only 2.4 shots on target per game in their recent matches
  • Away defensive issues: Colorado Rapids concede an average of 2.71 goals per away match this season
Overview

Columbus Crew host Colorado Rapids at Lower.com Field

Major League Soccer match on September 5, 2026, 11:30 PM

Columbus Crew sit in 15th place with 20 points

Colorado Rapids occupy 7th place with 31 points

The home side is looking to escape the bottom of the table

Form

Columbus Crew is struggling with a DLLLL form streak

The hosts suffered four consecutive defeats in their recent matches

Colorado Rapids travel with a strong WWWLW form

The visitors recorded four wins and only one defeat in their last five matches

Statistics

Columbus Crew scores 1.41 goals and concedes 1.77 goals on average per game

At home Columbus concedes an average of 1.4 goals

Colorado Rapids average 1.43 goals scored in away matches

However the away side struggles defensively conceding 2.71 goals per away match

Key Players

Mohamed Farsi stands out in midfield with a 6.89 season rating and three assists

André Gomes remains reliable with a 6.85 season average

Santiago RodrĂ­guez scored two goals in his recent appearances

For Colorado Paxten Aaronson leads with four goals and five assists this season

Youssef Maziz has provided two assists in his appearances

LoĂŻc Williams adds defensive quality with a season rating of 7.11

Goalkeepers

Patrick Schulte has played 22 games for Columbus with a 6.68 rating

Adam Beaudry made one appearance for Colorado holding a 6.79 rating

Influences

Lower.com Field features a grass surface

The venue average stands at 3.2 goals per match

All five matches at this venue went over 2.5 goals

The model calculates a 71% probability for Columbus Crew to win or draw

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