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Philadelphia Union – Cincinnati5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
2.19
Total xG
3.37
Cincinnati
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.61 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.43 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Milan Iloski on the bench (11 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Indiana Vassilev on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Kenji Mboma Dem on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad restriction: Only 72% of the regular starting lineup strength is available with Milan Iloski (11 goals/2 assists) and Indiana Vassilev (3 goals/1 assist) missing
- Form trend gap: Philadelphia Union is scoring more frequently recently (2.2) compared to their season average (1.7), while Cincinnati's scoring has stalled at 1.6 compared to 2.2 on average
- Tactical impact: Philadelphia Union averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive approach
Risks
- Short recovery: Cincinnati enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
- Defensive vulnerability away: Cincinnati concedes a very high average of 3.75 goals per away match this season
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union59%
Draw22%
Cincinnati19%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw81%
Cincinnati or draw41%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cincinnati: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 6 of 11 games (14 points lost)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-2-2-2 · Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 9 B. Damiani
- 23 E. Alladoh
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 24 K. Smith
- 12 M. Robinson
- 88 A. Chirila
- 20 P. Bucha
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 66 E. Echenique Peña
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
- 99 A. Jabbari
- 9 A. Denkey
Substitutes
- 5 J. Sery
- 10 M. Iloski
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 28 A. Anello
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 11 S. Gidi
- 2 A. Powell
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 13 E. Louro
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 16 T. Barlow
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. Ramírez León
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