šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati

09/09/2026, 11:45 PM

5 : 0
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
2.2
Total xG
3.4
Cincinnati
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
PUCIN

Philadelphia Union

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.61
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.02
Milan Iloski on the bench (11 goals, 2 assists)
Indiana Vassilev on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
44% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Cincinnati

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.43
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.19
Kenji Mboma Dem on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cincinnati: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Cincinnati: dropped a lead in 6 of 11 games (14 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

22%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Squad restriction: Only 72% of the regular starting lineup strength is available with Milan Iloski (11 goals/2 assists) and Indiana Vassilev (3 goals/1 assist) missing
  • Form trend gap: Philadelphia Union is scoring more frequently recently (2.2) compared to their season average (1.7), while Cincinnati's scoring has stalled at 1.6 compared to 2.2 on average
  • Tactical impact: Philadelphia Union averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches, showing a strong offensive approach
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery: Cincinnati enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Defensive vulnerability away: Cincinnati concedes a very high average of 3.75 goals per away match this season
Overview

Philadelphia Union (9th place, 27 points) host Cincinnati (6th place, 31 points) at Subaru Park

Major League Soccer match on September 9, 2026, 11:45 PM

The home side enters as the favorites with a calculated 59% win probability according to the mathematical model

Form

Philadelphia Union is in strong form with WDDWW and is unbeaten in their last five matches

Cincinnati travels with a form record of DWDLD, securing only one victory in their last five outings

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently, while the visitors got 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Philadelphia Union averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.7 goals conceded per match this season

Cincinnati is highly productive with 2.23 goals scored per match but concedes an average of 2.32 goals

The visitors show severe defensive issues on the road, conceding an average of 3.75 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

The historical record is perfectly balanced with 2 wins for each side across 4 direct duels

The last matchup on August 30, 2025 ended in a 1-0 away victory for Philadelphia Union

A total of 16 goals have been scored in these 4 direct encounters

Key Players

Cavan Sullivan has been excellent in Philadelphia Union's midfield with 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Bruno Damiani added 3 goals and 2 assists in attack for the home side

Evander is the star player for Cincinnati, recording a brilliant tally of 13 goals and 10 assists from midfield

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake guards the net for Philadelphia Union and has kept 4 clean sheets this season

Roman Celentano features in goal for Cincinnati and has recorded 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at Subaru Park

Subaru Park has historically produced high-scoring matches with an average of 3.2 goals per game

The model predicts 2.19 expected home goals and 1.18 expected away goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.