Match report →
New York City – New England1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New York City
1.29
Total xG
3.18
New England
1.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York City | New England |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Luighi on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Tayvon Gray on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Keaton Parks not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Tactical dominance: New England averaged 7.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to just 4.0 for New York City
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 50% chance of an away win and calculates 1.88 expected goals for New England
- Offensive trend: The hosts' goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.25 goals compared to their season average of 1.64
Risks
- Fatigue: New England enter the match with a short rest period of only 4 days since their last game
- Defensive vulnerability: New England concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
- Limited data regarding weather conditions for this match
All probabilities
Result
New York City25%
Draw25%
New England50%
Double chance
New York City or draw50%
New England or draw75%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York City: 82% of all goals in the first half (14 of 17, last 12 games)
- New York City: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)
- New England: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
- New York City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
New York City 4-3-3 · New England 4-3-3
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 35 M. Ilenčič
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 6 J. Sands
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. Fernández Mercau
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 9 B. Traore
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 8 M. Polster
- 22 E. Kohler
- 2 M. Fofana
- 23 W. Sands
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 21 B. Raines
- 80 A. Yusuf
- 11 J. Harrison
- 99 D. Turgeman
- 25 P. Miller
Substitutes
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 17 H. Wolf
- 24 T. Gray
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 16 A. Martínez Batista
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 12 I. Feingold
- 14 J. Yueill
- 33 D. Parisian
- 41 L. Langoni
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 27 W. Harris
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