šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

New York City - New England

09/10/2026, 12:00 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
New York City
1.3
Total xG
3.2
New England
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

10%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYCNE

New York City

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.12
Luighi on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Tayvon Gray on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Keaton Parks not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

New England

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+0.86
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York City: 82% of all goals in the first half (14 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 2
    New York City: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)

  • 3
    New England: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)

  • 4
    New York City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

25%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Tactical dominance: New England averaged 7.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to just 4.0 for New York City
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 50% chance of an away win and calculates 1.88 expected goals for New England
  • Offensive trend: The hosts' goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.25 goals compared to their season average of 1.64
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue: New England enter the match with a short rest period of only 4 days since their last game
  • Defensive vulnerability: New England concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match
  • Limited data regarding weather conditions for this match
Overview

New York City (7th place, 29 points) host New England (4th place, 37 points) at Citi Field

MLS match on September 10, 2026, 2:00 AM

New England enter as favorites for this clash

Form

New York City are winless in 5 matches (Form: LLDDD - L = Loss, D = Draw)

Their last three games ended in draws

New England show mixed form (LWDWL - W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors lost their last away game against LA Galaxy

Statistics

New York City score an average of 1.57 goals per game and concede 1.35

Their goal production stalled recently with an average of 1.25 in recent matches

New England score consistently, averaging 1.61 goals per game

The visitors concede an average of 2.00 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches in recent years

New York City secured 3 wins, New England won 1 time

The last direct meeting ended in a 1-1 draw

The overall goal difference stands at 6-4 in favor of New York City

Key Players

NicolƔs FernƔndez Mercau leads the hosts with 14 goals this season

AgustĆ­n Ojeda has already provided 6 assists this season

Carles Gil is the key midfielder for the visitors with 9 goals and 4 assists

Dor Turgeman has contributed 6 goals and 5 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Matt Freese has started 23 matches in goal for the hosts

Matt Turner has also guarded the net in 23 games for the visitors

The visiting goalkeeper has a higher average rating of 7.14 compared to his counterpart at 6.94

Influences

The match will take place at Citi Field

Previous games at this venue produced an average of 2.33 goals per match

Both teams scored in 67% of those fixtures

New England travel with just 4 days of rest compared to 6 days for the hosts

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.