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Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - New York RB

09/10/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Los Angeles FC
1.9
Total xG
2.9
New York RB
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
LAFNYR

Los Angeles FC

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.70
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.36
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.32
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 27, 24 places gap)
+0.13
Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Tyler Boyd on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

New York RB

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 27 vs 3, 24 places gap)
-0.18
Julian Hall on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
Ronald Donkor not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
51% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New York RB: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)

  • 2
    Los Angeles FC: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)

  • 4
    New York RB: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

25%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • New York RB travels highly depleted as the absence of Julian Hall (9 goals) and Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals) leaves only 63% of their usual goal threat
  • Significant home defensive advantage for Los Angeles FC, conceding just 0.73 goals per home game compared to 2.30 away goals conceded by New York RB
  • The mathematical model projects a 56% win probability for Los Angeles FC
Risk Factors
  • Both teams are currently in a form slump, being winless in their last five competitive matches
  • Both Los Angeles FC and New York RB show declining offensive output, each averaging just 0.75 goals recently
  • New York RB averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Los Angeles FC (3rd place, 37 points) host New York RB (27th place, 4 points) at BMO Stadium

MLS match on September 10, 2026, 4:30 AM

The hosts enter this matchup as the clear favorites

Form

Los Angeles FC form: LLDDD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last 5 games

New York RB form: LLDLD with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses recently

Both teams are currently on a five-match winless run

Statistics

Los Angeles FC scores 1.58 goals and concedes 1.00 per match on average this season

At home, the Los Angeles FC defense concedes only 0.73 goals per game

New York RB concedes 2.00 goals per game overall and 2.30 goals per game on the road

Head-to-Head

There has been only one previous direct meeting on April 21, 2024

That game ended in an entertaining 2:2 draw

Neither team holds a historical advantage over the other

Key Players

Denis Bouanga leads Los Angeles FC with 12 goals and 5 assists this season

Heung-min Son has contributed 5 goals and 9 assists to the home team's attack

New York RB relies on Cade Cowell with 2 goals and 6 assists alongside Emil Forsberg with 3 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Hugo Lloris guards the net for Los Angeles FC with 12 clean sheets and a 6.94 season rating

Ethan Horvath has recorded 2 clean sheets and a 6.78 average rating for New York RB

Influences

Strong home field advantage for Los Angeles FC who concede only 0.73 goals per match at BMO Stadium

The match will be played on a natural grass pitch

BMO Stadium averages 2.20 total goals per fixture

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