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Los Angeles FC – New York RB2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
1.87
Total xG
2.87
New York RB
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.70 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.36 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.32 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 27 vs 3, 24 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 27, 24 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Mark Delgado on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tyler Boyd on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Julian Hall on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jorge Ruvalcaba on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ronald Donkor not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 51% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- New York RB travels highly depleted as the absence of Julian Hall (9 goals) and Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals) leaves only 63% of their usual goal threat
- Significant home defensive advantage for Los Angeles FC, conceding just 0.73 goals per home game compared to 2.30 away goals conceded by New York RB
- The mathematical model projects a 56% win probability for Los Angeles FC
Risks
- Both teams are currently in a form slump, being winless in their last five competitive matches
- Both Los Angeles FC and New York RB show declining offensive output, each averaging just 0.75 goals recently
- New York RB averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC56%
Draw25%
New York RB18%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw82%
New York RB or draw44%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New York RB: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Los Angeles FC: 65% of all goals in the first half (11 of 17, last 12 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
- New York RB: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-1-4-1 · New York RB 4-3-3
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 33 A. Long
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 22 J. Terry
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 99 D. Bouanga
- 7 H. Son
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 59 D. Padelford
- 37 M. Sofo
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 7 C. Cowell
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 92 D. Nelich
Substitutes
- 9 A. Sieb
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 31 C. Carter
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 6 I. Lima
- 90 T. Mihalic
- 44 C. Diaz
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
- 16 J. Hall
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 26 T. Parker
- 17 C. Harper
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
- 60 S. Kone
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