Match report →
Los Angeles FC – LA Galaxy2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Los Angeles FC
2.15
Total xG
3.26
LA Galaxy
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Los Angeles FC | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.65 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.29 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Los Angeles FC scores 1.93 goals per home game in the league this season, LA Galaxy concedes 2.13 per away game
- Table: Los Angeles FC is in 6th place with 46 points in the league this season, LA Galaxy is 9th with 40 points
Risks
- Form: LA Galaxy won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Los Angeles FC won 1 match in that period
All probabilities
Result
Los Angeles FC60%
Draw23%
LA Galaxy18%
Double chance
Los Angeles FC or draw82%
LA Galaxy or draw40%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.15 : 1.11, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy with João Klauss starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/17 games, last 30)
- Los Angeles FC: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1 · LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 14 S. Palencia Hurtado
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 8 M. Delgado
- 6 I. Lima
- 81 L. Walta
- 7 H. Son
- 9 A. Sieb
- 99 D. Bouanga
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 15 J. Haak
- 14 J. Nelson
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 21 R. Taylor
- 27 E. Thommy
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 99 J. De Mello
Substitutes
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 20 S. Vasquez Cabrera
- 1 N. Mićović
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 18 M. Reus
- 22 E. Wynder
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 2 L. Calegari
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →