Match report →
St. Louis City – Toronto3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.71
Total xG
2.71
Toronto
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Toronto |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.34 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Simon Becher on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Daniel Ethan Edelman on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Djordje Mihailovic not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Theo Corbeanu on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home and away discrepancy: St. Louis City scores 1.67 goals per home game, while Toronto concedes an average of 3.0 goals away from home
- Offensive surge: The hosts are currently scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match, significantly higher than their season average of 1.68
- Tactical metrics: St. Louis averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, while Toronto averaged 5.6 shots on target with a counter-oriented style and 41.2% possession
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Toronto concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
- Key absences for the visitors: Djordje Mihailovic (2 goals, 5 assists) is missing from Toronto's midfield due to injury
- Altered lineup for St. Louis: The hosts must play without the unselected Simon Becher (7 goals, 4 assists) and Daniel Ethan Edelman (4 goals, 3 assists)
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City52%
Draw27%
Toronto21%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw79%
Toronto or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- St. Louis City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Dániel Sallói: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 62% of all goals in the first half (18 of 29, last 12 games)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-3 · Toronto 4-2-3-1
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 99 J. Orozco
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 6 C. Wallem
- 8 C. Durkin
- 23 A. Măţan
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 19 C. Holse
Toronto
- 1 L. Gavran
- 22 R. Laryea
- 25 W. Zimmerman
- 13 B. Kuscevic Jaramillo
- 3 M. Pereira de Souza
- 14 A. Coello Camarero
- 6 N. Dorsch
- 11 D. Etienne Jr.
- 71 M. Cimermancic
- 20 D. Salloi
- 9 J. Sargent
Substitutes
- 42 D. Downs
- 21 D. Polvara
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 11 S. Becher
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 24 D. Edelman
- 39 B. Lundt
- 59 M. Joyner
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 7 T. Corbeanu
- 21 J. Osorio
- 17 E. Aristizábal Chavarriaga
- 19 K. Franklin
- 23 W. Yarbrough Story
- 12 Z. Monlouis
- 90 L. Morgan
- 15 N. Gomis
- 38 J. Gilman
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →