Major League Soccer
St. Louis City - Toronto
09/20/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.0
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%1:2
6%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
St. Louis City
Toronto
League
The Lab
- 1St. Louis City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- 2St. Louis City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- 3Toronto: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- 4DĆ”niel SallĆ³i: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- 5St. Louis City: 62% of all goals in the first half (18 of 29, last 12 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
27%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Home and away discrepancy: St. Louis City scores 1.67 goals per home game, while Toronto concedes an average of 3.0 goals away from home
- Offensive surge: The hosts are currently scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match, significantly higher than their season average of 1.68
- Tactical metrics: St. Louis averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, while Toronto averaged 5.6 shots on target with a counter-oriented style and 41.2% possession
Risk Factors
- Away defensive weakness: Toronto concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
- Key absences for the visitors: Djordje Mihailovic (2 goals, 5 assists) is missing from Toronto's midfield due to injury
- Altered lineup for St. Louis: The hosts must play without the unselected Simon Becher (7 goals, 4 assists) and Daniel Ethan Edelman (4 goals, 3 assists)
Overview
St. Louis City hosts Toronto FC at Energizer Park
MLS match on September 20, 2026, 2:30 AM
St. Louis City is in 5th place with 41 points
Toronto is in 12th place with 29 points
The hosts enter the match as favorites
Form
St. Louis City is in strong form with three wins and two draws from their last five matches
Most recently, they secured a 4-2 home win against Minnesota United
Toronto recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss
The Canadian side lost their most recent match 0-3 against Orlando City
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
St. Louis City averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded at home
The hosts' offense is in great form, scoring 2.8 goals per game recently compared to their season average of 1.68
Toronto concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away game
Both teams scored in 18 of St. Louis City's 25 matches
In Toronto's away games, 18 goals were conceded across 6 matches
Key Players
Rafael Navarro has scored 4 goals this season with an average rating of 7.78
Conrad Wallem has recorded 1 goal, 3 assists, and a rating of 6.81
Tomas Totland contributes 2 goals, 4 assists, and a rating of 6.9
Josh Sargent scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists in 18 appearances, rating 7.07
DĆ”niel SallĆ³i has 7 goals, 6 assists, and a season rating of 6.98
Derrick Etienne Jr. has 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.69
Goalkeepers
Roman BĆ¼rki has played in 23 matches with an average rating of 6.76
Luka Gavran has made 25 appearances with a season rating of 6.76
Both teams have kept 3 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
The match will be played on natural grass at Energizer Park
St. Louis City averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded in their home matches
An average of 3.6 goals were scored in the last 5 home games
Both teams scored in 4 of those 5 matches