Match report â
Orlando City â Columbus Crew3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Orlando City
1.46
Total xG
2.57
Columbus Crew
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Orlando City | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive strength (2.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | â0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Justin Ellis not in squad (1 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| David Brekalo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| W. Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 79% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model calculates a 44% home win probability with 1.46 expected goals for the host
- Orlando City averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches and currently scores more frequently (2.2) than their season average
- Columbus Crew must cope with the absence of W. Abou Ali
Risks
- Orlando City has shown defensive vulnerabilities conceding 2.37 goals per game overall this season
- Columbus Crew conceded an average of 1.93 goals per away match
- Heavy intensity rain at 28.86°C could affect match conditions
All probabilities
Result
Orlando City44%
Draw29%
Columbus Crew27%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Orlando City or draw73%
Columbus Crew or draw56%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Columbus Crew: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Orlando City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Orlando City: 76% of all goals in the second half (19 of 25, last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Orlando City 4-4-2 · Columbus Crew 4-4-2
Orlando City
- 71 M. Crépeau
- 77 I. Angulo Cortés
- 4 D. Brekalo
- 6 R. Jansson
- 27 V. Nogueira de Oliveira
- 87 M. Pasalic
- 20 E. Atuesta Velasco
- 16 W. Cartagena Mendoza
- 23 H. Sarajian
- 10 M. Ojeda
- 7 A. Griezmann
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 23 M. Farsi
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 8 S. RodrĂguez Molina
- 7 D. Chambost
- 16 T. Habroune
- 21 A. Zaroury
- 10 B. MĂ©ndez Portela
- 77 J. MartĂnez
Substitutes
- 9 D. Dike
- 3 A. MarĂn GĂłmez
- 11 T. Souza de Jesus Carvalho
- 12 Javier Otero
- 19 Z. Taifi
- 21 N. Miller
- 22 J. Ellis
- 57 I. da Silva Nogueira
- 5 L. de Aquino
- 65 G. Caraballo Delgado
- 35 J. Gerbet
- 44 B. Rhein Goncalves
- 70 J. Hylton
- 3 E. Bailly
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 4 R. Camacho
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 24 E. Bush
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 11 B. Lennon
- 50 T. Karumanchi
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