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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - Minnesota United

09/27/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Minnesota United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SSMU

Seattle Sounders

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.44
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.39
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Paul Rothrock not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Dejan Joveljić not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Minnesota United

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
Joaquín Pereyra on the bench (3 goals, 10 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)

  • 3
    Seattle Sounders: 9 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 5
    Seattle Sounders with Cristian Roldán starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (15/7 games, last 25)

  • 6
    Seattle Sounders: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 13 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Form advantage: Seattle is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while Minnesota lost 4 of their last 5 games
  • Surface factor: Minnesota United lost all 3 matches played on artificial turf this season
  • Improving attack: Seattle currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average of 1.3
Risk Factors
  • Seattle Sounders with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive vulnerability for Minnesota United with an average of 3.4 goals conceded in recent matches
  • Limited data availability for weather
Overview

Seattle Sounders host Minnesota United at Lumen Field

Major League Soccer match on September 27, 2026, 2:30 AM

Seattle sits in 10th place with 32 points, while Minnesota ranks 14th with 29 points

The model's goal prediction is 1.51 goals for Seattle and 1.36 goals for Minnesota

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 40%

Form

Seattle Sounders form: DDDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss - 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses)

Minnesota United travels with a form of DLLLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Seattle stabilized recently and remains unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Minnesota is struggling in a severe negative run with four consecutive defeats

Statistics

Seattle averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game

Minnesota United averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.77 goals conceded per match

Both teams scored in 18 of Minnesota's 26 matches this season

On artificial turf, Minnesota lost all 3 matches this season with a 5:13 goal record

Head-to-Head

Even historical record with 5 head-to-head matches

Both teams recorded 1 win each alongside 3 draws

The goal difference stands at 7:6 in favor of Minnesota United

The last encounter on March 22, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Albert Rusnák is performing strongly in midfield with 4 goals and 9 assists this season

Kelvin Yeboah leads Minnesota with 14 goals this season

Marcus Caldeira scored 4 goals in his last 4 appearances

Not nominated for Seattle: Paul Rothrock (5T/1A), Kalani Kossa-Rienzi (3T/0A), Dejan Joveljić (3T/0A)

Not nominated for Minnesota: Joaquín Pereyra (3T/10A)

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas guards the net for Seattle with 25 appearances and a 7.1 average rating

Drake Callender made 26 seasonal appearances for Minnesota with a 6.75 rating

Seattle kept 7 clean sheets this season, while Minnesota registered 5 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Lumen Field

Seattle has a home record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses on this surface

Minnesota struggled heavily on artificial turf, losing all 3 games on this surface this season

Seattle's home goal record of 18:18 reflects a balanced home performance

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