Match report →
New England – New York RB3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New England
1.89
Total xG
3.22
New York RB
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New England | New York RB |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.57 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Peyton Miller on the bench (7 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Matt Polster on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: New England scores 1.8 goals per match at home in the league, New York RB concedes 1.8 per match away
- Table: New England ranks 2nd in the league with 55 points, New York RB is 9th with 39 points
Risks
- Attack: New York RB generated 2.27 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per match
- Head-to-head: New York RB won 3 of the 5 direct meetings against New England, New England won 2
All probabilities
Result
New England49%
Draw25%
New York RB26%
Double chance
New England or draw75%
New York RB or draw51%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.89 : 1.32, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New England: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York RB: 5 of 11 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- New York RB: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- New York RB: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
Lineups
New England 4-4-1-1 · New York RB 4-3-3
New England
- 30 M. Turner
- 12 I. Feingold
- 22 E. Kohler
- 66 J. Wynder
- 23 W. Sands
- 41 L. Langoni
- 21 B. Raines
- 14 J. Yueill
- 16 D. Gazdag
- 10 C. Gil de Pareja Vicent
- 99 D. Turgeman
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 12 D. Nealis
- 26 T. Parker
- 59 D. Padelford
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 37 M. Sofo
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Substitutes
- 4 T. Beason
- 7 G. Yow
- 8 M. Polster
- 33 D. Parisian
- 15 C. Baker
- 2 M. Fofana
- 25 P. Miller
- 77 D. Fagúndez Pepe
- 65 J. Siqueira
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 13 J. Choupo-Moting
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 79 R. Mosquera
- 8 D. Ruiz
- 17 C. Harper
- 60 S. Kone
- 45 C. Faello
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