Match report →
Charlotte – CF Montréal4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Charlotte
2.00
Total xG
3.08
CF Montréal
1.08
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Charlotte | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Liel Abada on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| David Schnegg on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Charlotte scores 1.93 goals per game at home in the league this season, CF Montréal concedes 2.6 per game away
- Table: Charlotte is 5th in the league this season with 47 points, CF Montréal is 15th with 25 points
- Head-to-head: Charlotte won 3 of the 5 direct meetings against CF Montréal
Risks
- Form: Charlotte recorded 1 win and 3 losses from their last 5 games
- Rest period: Charlotte with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Charlotte57%
Draw24%
CF Montréal19%
Double chance
Charlotte or draw81%
CF Montréal or draw43%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.00 : 1.08, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Charlotte: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- CF Montréal: 6 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Charlotte: 30% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 23)
Lineups
Charlotte 4-2-3-1 · CF Montréal 4-3-3
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 8 A. Westwood
- 28 D. Diani
- 37 R. Aloko
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 10 A. Saint-Maximin
- 9 Idan Toklomati
CF Montréal
- 41 S. Keita
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 22 V. Loturi
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 23 N. Streit
Substitutes
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 21 T. Miller
- 6 A. Doucouré
- 4 A. Privett
- 11 L. Abada
- 23 D. Schnegg
- 25 T. Smalls
- 20 B. Coulibaly
- 71 N. Richmond
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 17 D. Sealy
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 28 V. Radojević
- 1 S. Breza
- 6 S. Piette
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
- 21 F. Herbers
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →