Match report →
Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
1.87
Total xG
3.35
Philadelphia Union
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −1.01 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.74 | +0.74 |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Hany Mukhtar on the bench (16 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Sam Surridge on the bench (18 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Andy Nájar on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Elias Saad on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 60% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Milan Iloski not in squad (19 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bruno Damiani not in squad (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Cavan Sullivan not in squad (7 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Frankie Westfield on the bench (0 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| 61% of goal output missing (only 48% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Nashville SC average 3 goals per home game in the league this season, Philadelphia Union concede 2.13 away per game
- Form: Nashville SC have 4 wins in their last 5 games, Philadelphia Union have 3 wins
Risks
- Head-to-head: Balanced record with 2 wins each in 5 meetings from 2024 to 2026
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC46%
Draw25%
Philadelphia Union30%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw71%
Philadelphia Union or draw54%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Over 3.543%
Under 3.557%
Both teams score
Yes67%
No33%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.87 : 1.48, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 11 of 11 games (100%)
- Philadelphia Union: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Nashville SC: 10 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Austin: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Philadelphia Union: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (11 of 34)
- Philadelphia Union: 71% of all goals in the second half (24 of 34, last 12 games)
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-4-2 · Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 19 A. Muyl
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 37 A. Qasem
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 26 N. Harriel
- 44 N. Pierre
- 5 J. Sery
- 27 K. Wagner
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 23 E. Alladoh
Substitutes
- 11 E. Saad
- 1 J. Willis
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 9 S. Surridge
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 22 J. Bauer
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 28 A. Anello
- 66 F. Sundstrom
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 39 F. Westfield
- 47 K. LeBlanc
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