Match report →
Columbus Crew – DC United3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Columbus Crew
2.22
Total xG
3.21
DC United
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Columbus Crew | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Brais Méndez not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Tai Baribo not in squad (16 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jackson Hopkins on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 74% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Columbus Crew won 4 of their last 5 matches, while DC United lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Columbus Crew concedes 1.19 goals per game at home in the league, DC United 1.81 per game away
- Shots: Columbus Crew took 8 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, DC United 2.6 per game
Risks
- Rest days: Columbus Crew with 2 days since their last match
- Head-to-head: DC United won the last meeting 2-1
All probabilities
Result
Columbus Crew64%
Draw21%
DC United14%
Double chance
Columbus Crew or draw86%
DC United or draw36%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.22 : 0.99, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew with Mohamed Farsi starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (16/10 games, last 30)
- Columbus Crew: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- DC United: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Columbus Crew 3-4-3 · DC United 4-4-2
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 23 M. Farsi
- 7 D. Chambost
- 17 S. Tidiany Bangoura
- 21 A. Zaroury
- 16 T. Habroune
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
DC United
- 26 A. Bono
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 2 K. Nono
- 4 M. Peltola
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 8 J. Stroud
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
Substitutes
- 3 E. Bailly
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 19 J. Thiaré
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 77 J. Martínez
- 26 L. Giaccone
- 11 B. Lennon
- 50 T. Karumanchi
- 12 W. Antley
- 13 S. Nealis
- 23 B. Servania
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 27 N. Markovic
- 48 G. Turner
- 24 J. Farr
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
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