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Major League Soccer

Charlotte - Nashville SC

04/11/2026, 11:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Charlotte
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Nashville SC
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CHANS

Charlotte

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.67
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Wilfried Zaha not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.56
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.25
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.24
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Sam Surridge on the bench (7 goals, 0 assists)
Cristian Espinoza on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Hany Mukhtar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
75% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.61
+0.61
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

29%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Critical absences for Nashville SC significantly weaken the offense: Only 48% of usual starting XI goal threat available
  • Charlotte is strong at home, with a pipeline prediction of 42% for a home win
  • Nashville SC's goal production has recently stalled, their season average is 2.6 goals per game, currently it is 2.3
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for duel statistics in the last 5 games
  • Kristijan Kahlina, Charlotte's goalkeeper, shows a declining form trend
Overview

Charlotte (3rd place, 11 points) hosts Nashville SC (1st place, 13 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on April 11, 2026, 7:30 PM

This top-of-the-table clash promises excitement as Charlotte aims to close the gap on the league leaders

Form

Charlotte's form is L-W-D-W-W (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games

Nashville SC's form is D-W-W-W-L

This includes 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches

Statistics

Charlotte averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Charlotte averages 1.83 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded

Nashville SC averaged 2.17 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded this season

Away from home, Nashville SC averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 goal conceded

Charlotte kept 1 clean sheet at home, while Nashville SC kept 2 clean sheets in away games

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, the record is even

Charlotte and Nashville SC each won 2 games

The goal difference is also even at 5:5

Nashville SC won the last encounter on May 11, 2025, with a score of 2:1

Key Players

Charlotte relies on Pep Biel, who contributed 4 goals and 2 assists in 6 games with an average rating of 7.56

Idan Toklomati scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances with a rating of 6.88

Ashley Westwood contributed 1 goal in 6 games and achieved a rating of 7.14

For Nashville SC, Warren Madrigal is important with 2 goals and 2 assists in 6 games and a rating of 7.04

Patrick Yazbek provided 2 assists in 6 matches with a rating of 7.02

Maxwell Woledzi showed a rating of 7.08 in 6 games

Goalkeepers

Kristijan Kahlina of Charlotte had 1 clean sheet in 6 games and an average rating of 7.53

Brian Schwake of Nashville SC recorded 3 clean sheets in 6 games with an average rating of 6.76

Influences

Charlotte shows strong offensive and stable defensive performance at home with an average of 1.83 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded

Nashville SC's defense is solid away from home with an average of 1.0 goal conceded per game

No weather data or specific venue history is available

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