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Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - Orlando City

04/05/2026, 01:30 AM

6 : 0
Expected Goals
Los Angeles FC
2.0
Total xG
2.9
Orlando City
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
LAFOC

Los Angeles FC

Defensive weakness (0 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-1.97
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.11
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
David Martínez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Stephen Eustaquio not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

Orlando City

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.13
21% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
Weak away record (0.4 vs 1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.56
+0.56
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

24%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Los Angeles FC's exceptional form and defense: The team is undefeated this season and has conceded no goals, reflected in their 1st place in the standings
  • Orlando City's poor form and defense: The team has a record of 1 win and 4 losses, sits in 13th place, and concedes an average of 3.4 goals per game
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a high home win probability of 59% for Los Angeles FC
Risk Factors
  • Orlando City's high susceptibility to conceding goals: The team concedes an average of 3.4 goals per game (goalsConcededAvg)
  • Limited data availability for total duels in the last 5 matches for both teams
Overview

Los Angeles FC host Orlando City in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on April 5, 2026, 2:30 AM. Los Angeles FC are in excellent form, sitting in 1st place with 13 points. Orlando City, however, are struggling in 13th place with 3 points, fighting against relegation.

Form

Los Angeles FC are in excellent shape with a form of WWWWD (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) in their last five matches across all competitions. Their most recent match was a 0-0 draw against Austin. Prior to that, they secured a 2-0 win against St. Louis City and a 1-0 win against Dallas.

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Orlando City's form is LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). Most recently, Orlando City lost 0-5 to Nashville SC. This followed a 2-1 win against CF Montréal, a 0-5 loss against New York City, and a 2-4 loss against Inter Miami.

Statistics

Los Angeles FC has scored an average of 1.6 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 0 goals. The team kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 0 matches. There were over 2.5 goals in 1 match.

Orlando City averages 1.0 goal per game while conceding an average of 3.4 goals. Orlando City has not kept any clean sheets this season, and both teams scored in 3 matches. There were over 2.5 goals in 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

There has only been one direct encounter between Los Angeles FC and Orlando City. This match took place on June 15, 2024, with Orlando City winning 3-1 at home.

Key Players

For Los Angeles FC, Mark Delgado is a key player with 1 goal and 1 assist and an average rating of 7.33, Denis Bouanga has 1 goal and 1 assist (7.17), and Heung-min Son has 0 goals and 2 assists (7.13). David Martínez (2 goals, 0 assists) and Stephen Eustaquio (1 goal, 1 assist) are not nominated.

Notable players for Orlando City include Martín Ojeda with 2 goals and 0 assists (7.09), Iván Angulo with 0 goals and 2 assists (6.73), and Marco Pašalić with 1 goal and 0 assists (6.5).

Goalkeepers

Los Angeles FC's goalkeeper, Hugo Lloris, has kept 5 clean sheets this season. Orlando City's goalkeeper, Maxime Crépeau, has not managed any clean sheets this season.

Influences

Los Angeles FC demonstrates strong home performance, having conceded an average of 0 goals at home.

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