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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Deportivo Riestra - San Lorenzo

03/25/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Deportivo Riestra
1.0
Total xG
1.7
San Lorenzo
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

21%

1:0

16%

1:1

14%

0:1

12%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
DRSL

Deportivo Riestra

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.18
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.12
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0 vs 0.3 season average)
-0.10
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.3 goals/match)

San Lorenzo

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.45
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.29
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
M. de Ritis on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.49
-0.49
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

38%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

51%

Under 1.5

49%

Over 2.5

23%

Under 2.5

77%

Over 3.5

9%

Under 3.5

91%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

63%

Both Score

Yes

33%

No

67%

Key Factors
  • Deportivo Riestra has a very low goal output at home, averaging only 0.2 goals per home game
  • San Lorenzo currently shows a positive offensive trend, scoring more frequently (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw (38%) or a home win (38%)
Risk Factors
  • Deportivo Riestra scores only an average of 0.2 home goals per game
  • San Lorenzo is without M. de Ritis, who contributes 29% of the team's season assists
Overview

Deportivo Riestra (14th place, 6 points) host San Lorenzo (3rd place, 0 points) in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on March 25, 2026, 11:00 PM. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 38% probability and a draw with 38% probability

Form

Deportivo Riestra's form across all competitions is DDDDL (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss)

Their last match was a loss (0-1 against Central Cordoba SdE)

Before that, they had four consecutive draws, including 0-0 against Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and 0-0 against Platense

San Lorenzo's form is WDDDL (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Their last game was a loss (2-5 against Defensa y Justicia)

Previously, they drew three times, including 1-1 against Boca Juniors and 0-0 against Talleres CĂłrdoba

Statistics

Deportivo Riestra scores an average of 0.2 goals and concedes 0.6 goals per game this season

At home, they score 0.2 goals and concede 0.4 goals on average

The team kept 4 clean sheets this season and failed to score in 8 matches

San Lorenzo scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 1.1 goals per game

Away from home, they score 1.0 goals and concede 1.0 goals on average

San Lorenzo recorded 5 clean sheets this season and failed to score in 3 matches

Head-to-Head

In the 3 head-to-head matches played so far, Deportivo Riestra and San Lorenzo each have one win, with one draw

Both teams scored 1 goal each in these encounters

San Lorenzo won the last meeting 1-0 on October 31, 2025

Key Players

For Deportivo Riestra, Antony Alonso (1 goal, 0 assists), Cristian Paz (0 goals, 0 assists), and Pablo Monje (0 goals, 0 assists) are important players

For San Lorenzo, Alexis Cuello (3 goals, 3 assists), Luciano Vietto (2 goals, 0 assists), and Gregorio RodrĂ­guez (2 goals, 0 assists) are key players

Not nominated for San Lorenzo: M. de Ritis (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Deportivo Riestra's goalkeeper Ignacio Arce has 4 clean sheets

For San Lorenzo, José Devecchi is starting

San Lorenzo recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Deportivo Riestra scores an average of 0.2 goals and concedes 0.4 goals at home

San Lorenzo scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 1.0 goals away from home

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