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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia La Plata - Huracán

04/05/2026, 06:30 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Gimnasia La Plata
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Huracán
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
GLPHUR

Gimnasia La Plata

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.33
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

Huracán

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.49
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Thaiel Peralta on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.50
-0.50
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Close Prediction: The model slightly favors Huracán with a 35% win probability over Gimnasia at 34%
  • Huracán's Form Trend: The team is currently scoring more frequently (avg 1.3 goals) than their season average (avg 1.1 goals)
  • Gimnasia's Home Form: The home team has suffered 2 consecutive losses recently
Risk Factors
  • Huracán's Away Defense: The team concedes an average of 2.00 goals per away game
  • Gimnasia's Defensive Vulnerability: The home team recently conceded an average of 1.8 goals, higher than their season average of 1.5 goals
Overview

Gimnasia La Plata host Huracán in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 5, 2026, 6:30 PM

Gimnasia currently holds the 2nd place in the table, while Huracán is in 7th place

The mathematical analysis predicts a very close encounter with a home win probability of 34% and an away win probability of 35%

Form

Gimnasia La Plata's current form is L-D-W-L-L

The team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

They suffered 2 consecutive losses recently

Huracán shows a form of L-W-L-D-D

In their last 5 games, they achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The team drew 2 consecutive times recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.18 goals per game and concedes 1.36 goals per game

The home team kept 2 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 6 games

On average, Gimnasia La Plata scores 1.14 goals at home and concedes 1.00 goals

Huracán scores an average of 0.82 goals per game and concedes 0.82 goals per game

The away team kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 5 matches

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 games

On average, Huracán scores 1.00 goals away and concedes 2.00 goals

Head-to-Head

The teams have met in 1 head-to-head match so far

This match ended in a draw

The last encounter was a 0:0 on November 1, 2024

The historical record shows no clear dominance from either team

Key Players

For Gimnasia La Plata, Marcelo Torres (Attacker) is in good form with 4 season goals and 1 assist

Nicolás Barros Schelotto (Midfielder) scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists with stable form

Nacho Fernández (Midfielder) has 1 goal and 2 assists, showing a rising form trend

For Huracán, Jordy Caicedo (Attacker) stands out with 5 season goals

Óscar Cortés (Attacker) contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, showing stable form

Emmanuel Ojeda (Midfielder) has 1 assist and stable form

Goalkeepers

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper, Nelson Insfrán, has an average rating of 6.72 in 9 season appearances and a rising form

Gimnasia La Plata recorded 2 clean sheets

Huracán's goalkeeper, Hernán Galíndez, has an average rating of 6.93 in 10 season appearances and also a rising form

Huracán achieved 5 clean sheets

Influences

Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1.14 goals at home and concedes 1.00 goals

Huracán scores an average of 1.00 goals away and concedes 2.00 goals

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