đŸ‡ŠđŸ‡·

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Tigre - Independiente Rivadavia

04/02/2026, 08:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Tigre
1.0
Total xG
1.9
Independiente Rivadavia
0.9
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

12%

2:0

7%
What influences the xG?
TIGIR

Tigre

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 7 vs 1, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Full strength squad available

Independiente Rivadavia

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.25
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 7, 6 places gap)
+0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Gonzalo RĂ­os on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Alejo Osella on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 96% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.49
-0.49
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

36%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

57%

Under 1.5

43%

Over 2.5

29%

Under 2.5

71%

Over 3.5

12%

Under 3.5

88%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

38%

No

62%

Key Factors
  • Independiente Rivadavia, as league leaders (1st place, 23 points), are in a significantly better starting position than Tigre (7th place, 17 points)
  • Current form favors the visitors, who recently won 2 consecutive games (DDLWW) compared to Tigre's winless streak (LDDDL)
  • Tigre's goal production is currently stagnating (1.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.6 goals per game)
Risk Factors
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a tight game with 35% home win, 36% draw, and 30% away win probability
  • Only a 29% probability for over 2.5 goals according to mathematical prediction
  • Tigre averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches, Independiente Rivadavia 5.0
Overview

Tigre (7th place, 17 points) host Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 23 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match takes place on April 2, 2026, 8:30 PM

Tigre aims to close the gap to the top spots, while Independiente Rivadavia seeks to consolidate their league leadership

Form

Tigre currently shows poor form with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games (LDDDL)

Their last match resulted in a loss

Independiente Rivadavia is in better shape with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss (DDLWW)

The team won their last two matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tigre scored an average of 1.45 goals per game this season and conceded 0.91 goals

Independiente Rivadavia has an average of 1.64 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per game

Tigre maintains a solid defense at home with only 0.71 goals conceded per home game

Independiente Rivadavia shows strong offensive performance away with an average of 1.75 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, there has been one win each for Tigre and Independiente Rivadavia, and one draw

Tigre scored a total of 5 goals, Independiente Rivadavia 4 goals

The last encounter on August 22, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

The head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Tigre, David Romero (6 goals, 2 assists), Ignacio Russo (4 goals, 2 assists), and Alan Barrionuevo (2 goals, 2 assists) are key players in the starting lineup

Romero has a season average rating of 7.01, Russo 7.32

For Independiente Rivadavia, Fabrizio Sartori (5 goals, 0 assists), SebastiĂĄn Villa (0 goals, 3 assists), and MatĂ­as FernĂĄndez (2 goals, 0 assists) are in the starting lineup

Villa has a season average rating of 7.47

Not in squad for Independiente Rivadavia: Gonzalo RĂ­os (1G/2A), Alejo Osella (3G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Tigre's goalkeeper Felipe Zenobio recorded an average rating of 6.85 in 10 season appearances

Independiente Rivadavia's goalkeeper NicolĂĄs Bolcato played in 11 season matches with an average rating of 6.66

Tigre achieved 3 clean sheets this season

Independiente Rivadavia kept 2 clean sheets

Influences

Tigre scores an average of 1.43 goals at home and concedes 0.71 goals per game

Independiente Rivadavia shows a strong offense away with 1.75 goals and a solid defense with 1.00 goals conceded per away game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.