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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Lanús - Platense

04/01/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Lanús
1.3
Total xG
2.1
Platense
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

2:0

10%

0:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LANPLA

Lanús

Attack strength (1.24x league average)
+0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.09
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Ramiro Carrera not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Walter Bou not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
60% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

Platense

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.3 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.16
Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
100% of goal output missing (only 26% available)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.48
-0.48
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

32%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Lanús: Only 52% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available, without Ramiro Carrera (2G/3A) and Walter Bou (2G/0A)
  • Critical squad impact for Platense: Only 26% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available
  • Form and prediction: Lanús shows better form with 3 wins in their last 5 games compared to Platense (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), supporting the model's 44% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Lanús has only 5 days since their last match, potentially impacting freshness
  • Platense shows low offensive output in their last 5 games, averaging 3.2 shots on target
  • The model's low BTTS (43%) and Over 2.5 (36%) probabilities suggest a tight, potentially low-scoring game
Overview

Lanús (4th place, 18 points) host Platense (10th place, 14 points) in a Liga Profesional de Fútbol match. The game takes place on April 2, 2026, 12:00 AM. Lanús aims to solidify its top league position, while Platense tries to climb the table.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Lanús' form across all competitions is LWWWL

Recently, Lanús recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a loss, marking a streak of 1 consecutive loss

Lanús lost away 1-2 against Argentinos Juniors

Prior to that, there was a 1-0 away win against Vélez Sarsfield

Platense's form across all competitions is DDDLL

Recently, Platense recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a loss, marking a streak of 2 consecutive losses

Platense lost away 0-1 against Argentinos Juniors

Prior to that, there was a 0-2 away loss against Vélez Sarsfield

Statistics

Lanús scored an average of 1.55 goals per game this season and conceded 1.27 goals

Platense scored an average of 0.55 goals per game and conceded 0.64 goals

Lanús kept 3 clean sheets, while Platense kept 5 clean sheets

In 6 games for Lanús, more than 2.5 goals were scored, compared to 2 games for Platense

In home games, Lanús scored an average of 1.6 goals and conceded 1.0 goals

In away games, Platense scored an average of 0.6 goals and conceded 0.6 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, there has been 1 win for Lanús and 2 draws

Platense has not won any head-to-head match so far

Lanús scored 2 goals in these matches, Platense scored 1 goal

The last encounter saw Lanús win 2-1 on September 20, 2025

Lanús has shown dominance in recent encounters at home

Key Players

For Lanús, Eduardo Salvio is a key player, contributing 1 goal and 3 assists this season, with an average rating of 6.74

Carlos Izquierdoz scored 2 goals and received a season rating of 7.05

Sasha Marcich contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, achieving an average season rating of 6.85

For Platense, Juan Carlos Gauto is an important player, contributing 1 assist this season, with an average rating of 6.56

Victor Cuesta showed consistent performance with an average season rating of 7.05

Tomás Silva achieved an average season rating of 6.91

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Losada is the goalkeeper for Lanús, who recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Matías Borgogno is the goalkeeper for Platense, who recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

Lanús shows a stronger offense in home games with an average of 1.6 goals scored and a stable defense with 1.0 goals conceded

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