Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Barracas Central - Sarmiento
04/02/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
1.9
0.8
0:0
16%1:1
15%1:0
15%0:1
10%2:0
9%What influences the xG?
Barracas Central
Sarmiento
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
34%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
60%
Under 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
31%
Under 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
13%
Under 3.5
87%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis favors Barracas Central with a home win probability of 42%
- Current form: Barracas Central is unbeaten in their last 5 games (WDWWD)
- Offensive form: Barracas Central is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.1)
Risk Factors
- Playmaker missing: TomĂĄs Porra (0G/2A) is not in the lineup, affecting 17% of Barracas Central's usual assists
- Low shot efficiency: Barracas Central averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Low shot efficiency: Sarmiento averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Barracas Central (8th place, 16 points) host Sarmiento (12th place, 13 points) on April 2, 2026, 8:00 PM in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
The home side holds a slight favorite role in this mid-table clash
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42% probability, while a draw is at 34%
Form
Barracas Central shows strong form with WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches
Their last game ended in a draw
Sarmiento enters this encounter with a form of LWDLW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Sarmiento's last match was a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Barracas Central scores an average of 0.91 goals per game and concedes 0.82 goals
At home, the average is 0.88 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded
Sarmiento scores an average of 0.73 goals per game and concedes 1.0 goal
Away from home, Sarmiento scores an average of 1.0 goal but concedes 7.0 goals (based on one away game)
Barracas Central has kept 3 clean sheets, Sarmiento has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Head-to-Head
In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Sarmiento and 2 draws
Barracas Central has not won any of the previous 3 encounters
The goal difference is 2:3 in favor of Sarmiento
The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended with a 0:1 victory for Sarmiento
Key Players
For Barracas Central, Marcelo Miño is important with a rising form and an average rating of 8.07 in the last five games
Rodrigo InsĂșa is a key offensive factor with 2 season goals and one goal in the last five matches
Facundo Bruera contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season and showed stable form in the last five games with 1 goal and 1 assist
For Sarmiento, Junior Marabel stands out with 5 season goals and 3 goals in the last five matches
Cristian Zabala scored 1 season goal and 1 goal in the last five games
Goalkeeper Javier Burrai is a reliable presence with a stable form trend and a rating of 7.40 in the last five games
Goalkeepers
Barracas Central's goalkeeper Marcelo Miño maintains an average rating of 8.07 in the last five games and shows a rising form trend
He has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Sarmiento's goalkeeper Javier Burrai has an average rating of 7.40 in the last five matches and a stable form trend
Sarmiento achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
Barracas Central displays a solid defense at home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per home game
The offensive performance at home averages 0.88 goals per game