Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Rosario Central - Atlético Tucumán
04/05/2026, 12:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Rosario Central
Atlético Tucumán
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
30%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Rosario Central exhibits better current form and a higher league position, underscoring their favoritism
- Atlético Tucumán's weak away defense, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game, is a clear disadvantage
- Rosario Central historically dominates head-to-head matches with 2 wins out of 3 encounters
Risk Factors
- Rosario Central is playing with reduced squad strength, as only 61% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available without Gastón Ávila, Julián Fernández
- Atlético Tucumán averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts 1.47 expected goals for Rosario Central, indicating a rather moderate offensive performance
Overview
Rosario Central (6th place, 18 points) hosts Atlético Tucumán (13th place, 9 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM
Rosario Central aims to establish itself in the upper half of the table
Atlético Tucumán needs crucial points in the fight against relegation
Form
Rosario Central shows a form of WWDWL across all competitions
This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last 5 matches
The team recently recorded a loss
Atlético Tucumán's form is LLDLW
In the last 5 games, there was 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with the last game being a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Rosario Central averages 1.09 goals scored per game and concedes 0.82 goals
At home, the average is 1.0 home goals scored and 0.8 home goals conceded
Atlético Tucumán also scored 1.09 goals per game but conceded an average of 1.45 goals
Atlético Tucumán's away defense is particularly vulnerable, with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per away game
Rosario Central kept 4 clean sheets this season, Atlético Tucumán 3
Both teams scored in 5 games for Rosario Central and 7 games for Atlético Tucumán
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 games for Rosario Central and 7 games for Atlético Tucumán
Head-to-Head
In the 3 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Rosario Central dominated with 2 wins
Atlético Tucumán has not won any of these duels, with 1 draw
Rosario Central scored 4 goals, while Atlético Tucumán managed 1 goal
The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on August 9, 2025
The home team has been the dominant force in recent encounters
Key Players
For Rosario Central, key players include Jáminton Campaz (2 goals in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 2 assists this season, rising form), Alejo Veliz (1 assist in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, stable form) and Enzo Giménez (1 goal in the last 5 games and for the season, stable form)
For Atlético Tucumán, Leandro Díaz (2 goals in the last 5 games with 4 goals and 1 assist this season, declining form), Franco Nicola (1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, rising form) and Clever Ferreira (1 goal in the last 5 games and for the season, rising form) are in focus
Goalkeepers
Jorge Broun is the goalkeeper for Rosario Central and played 1 game with an average rating of 7.45
Rosario Central has achieved a total of 4 clean sheets this season
Luis Ingolotti is the goalkeeper for Atlético Tucumán and played 11 games with an average rating of 6.43 and a declining form
Atlético Tucumán has achieved a total of 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Rosario Central exhibits a solid defense at home with an average of 0.8 goals conceded per game
Atlético Tucumán's away record shows a vulnerable defense with an average of 2.2 goals conceded per away game
The home team scores an average of 1.0 goals in home matches