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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Belgrano

04/05/2026, 09:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Belgrano
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
RPBEL

River Plate

Attack strength (1.82x league average)
+1.48
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.90
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
Gonzalo Montiel not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
43% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

Belgrano

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.15
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.10
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
NicolĂĄs FernĂĄndez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.49
-0.49
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

26%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline forecast: Mathematical analysis indicates a clear home win probability of 57% for River Plate
  • Current form: River Plate has won three consecutive games and is in very good form (WDWWW)
  • Offensive strength: River Plate is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals avg) than their season average (1.4 goals avg) and generates an average of 6.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive power
  • Belgrano showed inconsistent form in their last five games with two losses (WLWDL)
Overview

River Plate (3rd place, 20 points) host Belgrano (5th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 5, 2026, 6:00 PM. The match is a direct encounter in the upper part of the table, where River Plate aims to consolidate their position and Belgrano seeks to close the gap.

Form

River Plate is showing very strong form with four wins and one draw (WDWWW) from their last five games. The team has won three consecutive matches. Belgrano, on the other hand, has had mixed form with two wins, one draw, and two losses (WLWDL) in their last five matches, with the last game being a loss (L = Loss, D = Draw, W = Win).

Statistics

River Plate scores an average of 1.27 goals per game this season and concedes 0.82 goals. At home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Belgrano scores 1.09 goals per game and also concedes 0.82 goals. Away, Belgrano averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game. River Plate kept five clean sheets, as did Belgrano. River Plate had three matches with over 2.5 goals, while Belgrano had four.

Head-to-Head

In the only head-to-head match between the two teams, which took place on May 18, 2024, River Plate won 3-0. River Plate scored all three goals and Belgrano none, highlighting the home team's dominance in this historical comparison.

Key Players

For River Plate, Sebastiån Driussi, with 3 season goals in 9 appearances, is a key player who recently scored 3 goals in 5 games and shows stable form (7.31 rating). Ian Subiabre, also in attack, has 1 goal and 2 assists in 11 season appearances, recently showing rising form (7.05 rating) with 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games. Aníbal Moreno in midfield has 1 assist in 11 season appearances and recently showed stable form (7.08 rating). For Belgrano, Lucas Zelarayån , with 3 goals and 1 assist in 9 season appearances, is an important offensive player who recently scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games. Franco Våzquez (2 goals in 10 season appearances) recently contributed 1 goal in 5 games and has stable form (6.95 rating). Emiliano Rigoni (1 goal, 2 assists in 10 season appearances) recently scored 1 goal in 5 games with stable form (6.63 rating).

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn of River Plate achieved 5 clean sheets in 11 season games. Thiago Cardozo of Belgrano also achieved 5 clean sheets in 11 season games. Both goalkeepers show comparable performance in keeping a clean sheet.

Influences

River Plate showed a slight offensive strength in home games with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Belgrano scored an average of 1.2 goals away and conceded 1.0 goal per game.

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