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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Aldosivi - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

04/04/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Aldosivi
1.1
Total xG
1.8
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
0.7
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

10%

2:0

10%
What influences the xG?
ALDEDRC

Aldosivi

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.45
Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.09
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.4 season average)
-0.04
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
Nicolás Cordero on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Strong home record (0.7 vs 0.4 goals/match)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.86
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Rising form (0.4 vs 0.3 season average)
+0.03
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.49
-0.49
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

36%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

55%

Under 1.5

45%

Over 2.5

27%

Under 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

64%

Both Score

Yes

35%

No

65%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Aldosivi with a 42% probability
  • Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's away weakness is significant, with an average of 3.25 goals conceded per away game
  • Both teams show low offensive output, scoring only 0.27 goals on average per season and recording few shots on target per game
Risk Factors
  • Nicolás Cordero is missing for Aldosivi, leaving only 65% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat available
  • Aldosivi has a short recovery time of 4 days since their last match
  • Both teams have averaged less than 2.5 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Aldosivi (14th place, 5 points) host Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (15th place, 4 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on April 4, 2026, 1:30 PM

Both teams are deeply involved in the relegation battle at the bottom of the table

Form

Aldosivi's home form is LDDLL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Aldosivi has suffered two consecutive losses recently

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's away form is WLLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has conceded four consecutive losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Aldosivi averages 0.27 goals scored and 1.18 goals conceded per season

At home, Aldosivi averages 0.25 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages 0.27 goals scored and 1.55 goals conceded per season

Away, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto averages 0.25 goals scored and 3.25 goals conceded

Aldosivi kept 3 clean sheets, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto kept 2 clean sheets

Aldosivi failed to score in 8 matches, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto failed to score in 9 matches

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head data is available for this fixture

Key Players

For Aldosivi, Federico Gino (2 goals, Avg. 6.76), Nicolás Zalazar (1 assist, Avg. 7.17) and Axel Werner (Avg. 6.92) are important players

Federico Gino shows stable form with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Nicolás Zalazar has shown stable form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.17

For Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, Gabriel Alanís (1 goal, Avg. 6.67), Gonzalo Maffini (1 assist, Avg. 6.84) and Mateo Bajamich (1 goal, Avg. 6.56) are key players

Gabriel Alanís scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and shows stable form

Gonzalo Maffini showed stable form in the last 5 games with 1 assist and an average rating of 6.99

Goalkeepers

Aldosivi's goalkeeper, Axel Werner, has appeared in 11 season games and achieved 3 clean sheets

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto's goalkeeper, Agustín Lastra, has appeared in 6 season games and achieved 2 clean sheets

Influences

Aldosivi scores an average of 0.25 goals at home and concedes 0.75 goals

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores an average of 0.25 goals away and concedes 3.25 goals

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