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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Instituto - Defensa y Justicia

04/07/2026, 12:15 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Instituto
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Defensa y Justicia
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

11%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
INSDYJ

Instituto

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 4, 9 places gap)
-0.11
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.03
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.01
14% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 1 goals/match)

Defensa y Justicia

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 13, 9 places gap)
+0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.02
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.02
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Rubén Botta not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.48
-0.48
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

34%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Defensa y Justicia's strong away defense with only 0.57 goals conceded per game is a crucial factor
  • Defensa y Justicia shows a positive form development, scoring more frequently recently (2.3) than their season average (1.9)
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 37% probability, compared to 29% for an away win
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis shows a relatively high draw probability of 34%
  • The probability for over 2.5 goals is only 33% according to the model
Overview

Instituto (13th place, 11 points) host Defensa y Justicia (4th place, 19 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 7, 2026, 2:15 AM

Defensa y Justicia aims to improve their top table position, while Instituto seeks to move away from the bottom ranks

Form

Instituto's form is DLLWL

This represents 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last 5 games

The last match ended in a loss

Defensa y Justicia's form is DDDWW

This represents 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 5 games

The team has won the last 2 matches

Statistics

Instituto scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.36 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 1.00 goals scored and 0.78 goals conceded

The team kept 1 clean sheet and both teams scored in 6 games

Defensa y Justicia scored an average of 1.36 goals and conceded 0.73 goals per game this season

Away, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 0.57 goals conceded

The team kept 5 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match so far

Instituto won the only encounter

The goal difference of 4:1 clearly favors Instituto

The last match ended on August 24, 2024, with a 4:1 victory for Instituto

Key Players

For Instituto, Alex Luna (4 goals, 1 assist), Giuliano Cerato (2 goals, 1 assist), and Diego Sosa (1 goal, 1 assist) are key players

Alex Luna shows a slightly declining form with a rating of 6.72 in the last 5 games

Giuliano Cerato and Diego Sosa are in stable form with ratings of 6.89 and 6.76 respectively in the last 5 games

For Defensa y Justicia, Aarón Molinas (2 goals, 4 assists), Juan Gutiérrez (3 goals, 2 assists), and Elías Pereyra (2 goals) are important players

Aarón Molinas and Juan Gutiérrez are in stable form, as is Elías Pereyra

Not nominated for Defensa y Justicia is Rubén Botta (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Manuel Roffo is Instituto's goalkeeper and has 1 clean sheet

Cristopher FiermarĂ­n is Defensa y Justicia's goalkeeper and has 5 clean sheets

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