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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Unión Santa Fe - Deportivo Riestra

04/03/2026, 08:15 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Unión Santa Fe
1.3
Total xG
2.0
Deportivo Riestra
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

16%

0:0

15%

1:1

14%

2:0

11%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
USFDR

Unión Santa Fe

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.07
Attack strength (1.45x league average)
+0.05
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02

Deportivo Riestra

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
+0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.06

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.49
-0.49
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

33%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Unión Santa Fe with a 48% probability
  • Unión Santa Fe's home defense is very strong, conceding an average of 0.25 goals and keeping 4 clean sheets in 4 home games
  • Deportivo Riestra shows significant offensive weaknesses, with an average of only 0.27 goals per game and 8 matches without scoring
Risk Factors
  • The data situation for totalDuels is limited
  • The mathematical model predicts a draw with a considerable probability of 33%
Overview

Unión Santa Fe host Deportivo Riestra in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on April 3, 2026, 9:15 PM

Unión Santa Fe are in 7th place with 16 points

Deportivo Riestra are in 14th place with 7 points

The mathematical analysis predicts Unión Santa Fe to win with a 48% probability

Form

Unión Santa Fe's current form is 'WWDDL' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The last result was a 0-2 away loss against Defensa y Justicia

Deportivo Riestra's current form is 'DDDLD'

The away team achieved 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The last result was a 1-1 home draw against San Lorenzo

Statistics

Unión Santa Fe scored an average of 1.45 goals per game this season and conceded 1.09 goals

The home team kept 4 clean sheets

Deportivo Riestra scored an average of only 0.27 goals per game and conceded 0.64 goals

The away team kept 4 clean sheets

At home, Unión Santa Fe scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.25 goals

Unión Santa Fe kept 4 clean sheets in home games

Deportivo Riestra scored an average of 0.25 goals in away games and conceded 1.0 goal

Deportivo Riestra kept 1 clean sheet in away games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between the teams so far

This one encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on August 31, 2024

Both teams scored 0 goals in direct encounters

The history shows an 'even' balance

Key Players

For Unión Santa Fe, Mateo Del Blanco is a key player with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, an average rating of 7.48, and a rising form trend

Cristian Tarragona, an attacker, scored 3 goals in the last 5 games and shows stable form with an average rating of 7.21

Rafael Profini contributed 5 assists in the last 5 games and has a rising form trend with an average rating of 7.21

Deportivo Riestra's attacker Antony Alonso scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, has an average rating of 6.80, and shows stable form

Cristian Paz has stable form with an average rating of 6.76

Matias Garcia shows a rising form trend with an average rating of 6.69

Goalkeepers

Unión Santa Fe's goalkeeper Matías Mansilla had 4 clean sheets this season

Deportivo Riestra's goalkeeper Ignacio Arce also recorded 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Unión Santa Fe shows a strong defensive performance at home, conceding an average of 0.25 goals per game

The home team kept a clean sheet in all 4 home games this season

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