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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza - Vélez Sarsfield

04/03/2026, 06:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
0.8
Total xG
2.0
Vélez Sarsfield
1.2
Most Likely Scores

0:0

15%

0:1

15%

1:1

14%

0:2

10%

1:0

9%
What influences the xG?
GYEMVS

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.54
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.26
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)
-0.10
Rising form (0.8 vs 0.6 season average)
+0.04
Santiago Rodríguez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
37% of goal output missing (only 61% available)
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.6 goals/match)

Vélez Sarsfield

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.69
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.38
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 0.8 league avg)
-0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)
+0.07

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.50
-0.50
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

33%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

61%

Under 1.5

39%

Over 2.5

32%

Under 2.5

68%

Over 3.5

14%

Under 3.5

86%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Squad Strength: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has only 61% of their usual starting XI strength, with Santiago Rodríguez (1G/1A) not in the lineup
  • Form and Table Position: Vélez Sarsfield is the league leader with better form (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Gimnasia is winless (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
  • Statistical Advantage: Vélez Sarsfield's strong away defense (Avg. 0.5 goals conceded) meets a weak home offense (Gimnasia Avg. 0.5 home goals scored)
Risk Factors
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scores only 0.5 home goals per game (homeGoalsScoredAvg)
  • Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 matches (avgShotsOnTarget)
  • Vélez Sarsfield's current goal production (1.0 per game) has slowed down, compared to their season average of 1.2 per game (advancedStats.away.description)
Overview

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (13th place, 9 points) host Vélez Sarsfield (1st place, 22 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match will take place on April 3, 2026, 3:00 PM

Vélez Sarsfield arrives as the league leader, while Gimnasia is in the lower mid-table

Form

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's form in the last five matches is DLLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses

The last two matches resulted in losses

Vélez Sarsfield's form in the last five matches is LWDWD

This means 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The last match resulted in a loss

Statistics

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza has scored an average of 0.55 goals and conceded 1.18 goals per game this season

At home, the average is 0.5 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per home game

The team kept 3 clean sheets and failed to score in 5 matches

Vélez Sarsfield has scored an average of 1.09 goals and conceded 0.55 goals per game

Away from home, the average is 1.17 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per away game

The team kept 5 clean sheets and failed to score in 2 matches

Head-to-Head

The dataset does not contain any direct head-to-head encounters between Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and Vélez Sarsfield

Key Players

For Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza, Facundo Lencioni (1 goal, 2 assists, avg rating 7.06) and Agustín Módica (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.73) are notable

Agustín Módica scored 1 goal in the last 5 matches

Defensively, Ezequiel Muñoz (avg rating 6.93) is an important figure

For Vélez Sarsfield, Matías Pellegrini (3 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.06) and Florián Monzón (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 6.84) are in form

Matías Pellegrini scored 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 matches, Florián Monzón scored 2 goals

Manuel Lanzini (2 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.13) is a crucial player in midfield

Goalkeepers

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's goalkeeper, Cesar Rigamonti, has achieved an average rating of 7.12 this season

He kept 3 clean sheets

Vélez Sarsfield's goalkeeper is Álvaro Montero, whose average rating is 7.21

He kept 5 clean sheets

Influences

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza scored an average of 0.5 goals and conceded 0.83 goals in home games

Vélez Sarsfield performed strongly away, scoring 1.17 goals and conceding only 0.5 goals per away game

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