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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Talleres Córdoba - Boca Juniors

04/02/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Talleres Córdoba
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Boca Juniors
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
TCBJ

Talleres Córdoba

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.12
Giovanni Baroni not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Boca Juniors

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.23
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Leandro Paredes on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Santiago Ascacíbar on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.49
-0.49
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

32%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Talleres Córdoba with a 40% probability and a double chance of home win or draw with 73%
  • Boca Juniors shows a positive form trend and dominant possession play with an average of 4.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Talleres Córdoba possesses a stable home defense with an average of 0.67 goals conceded per home game
Risk Factors
  • Boca Juniors are missing key players such as Leandro Paredes (1 goal, 3 assists) and Santiago Ascacíbar (2 goals, 0 assists), leaving only 58% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat available
  • Talleres Córdoba recorded an average of 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • The historical record shows that Talleres Córdoba has not yet managed to win against Boca Juniors in two direct encounters (1 draw, 1 loss)
Overview

Talleres Córdoba (5th place, 18 points) host Boca Juniors (4th place) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on April 3, 2026, 12:30 AM

Talleres aims to improve its position in the upper mid-table

Form

Talleres Córdoba's form across all competitions is LDWDW

The team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Their last outing was a 2-1 away win against Independiente

Boca Juniors' form across all competitions is DWDDW

The team achieved 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 games

They recently secured a 2-0 home win against Instituto

The mathematical analysis describes Talleres' current form as stable

Boca Juniors shows a positive form trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Talleres Córdoba scores an average of 1.09 goals and concedes 0.91 goals per season

At home, they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game

The team kept 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches

Boca Juniors scores an average of 1.18 goals and concedes 0.64 goals per game

Away from home, they score 1.20 goals and concede 1.00 goals

Boca Juniors kept 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 5 matches

Talleres Córdoba consistently scores (~1.3 goals per game)

Boca Juniors currently scores more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.4)

Head-to-Head

In two head-to-head matches between Talleres Córdoba and Boca Juniors, there was one draw and one away win for Talleres

Talleres Córdoba scored 2 goals, while Boca Juniors managed 0 goals

The last encounter saw Talleres win 2-0 away on November 23, 2025

Key Players

For Talleres Córdoba, Ronaldo Martínez (2 goals, 1 assist), Augusto Schott (2 goals), and Rick (1 goal, 1 assist) are key players

For Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel (4 goals, 1 assist), Adam Bareiro (1 goal, 1 assist), and Tomás Aranda (1 goal) stand out

Goalkeepers

Guido Herrera is the goalkeeper for Talleres Córdoba with an average season rating of 7.01

The team kept 4 clean sheets

Leandro Brey is in goal for Boca Juniors

The team recorded 6 clean sheets

Influences

Talleres Córdoba has scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 0.67 goals at home

Boca Juniors scored an average of 1.20 goals and conceded 1.00 goals away from home

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