Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
San Lorenzo - Estudiantes
04/03/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.4
1.3
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:2
8%1:0
8%What influences the xG?
San Lorenzo
Estudiantes
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
31%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Estudiantes' strong defense (0.45 goals conceded on average) meets San Lorenzo's offense (1.00 goal on average)
- Estudiantes' better form (3 wins in 5 games) and their offensive strength (avg 6.2 shots on target)
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Estudiantes with 40% probability
Risk Factors
- For Estudiantes, Guido Carrillo (1 goal/1 assist) is not in the lineup, meaning only 89% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat is available
- San Lorenzo has not recorded a win in their last five matches (4 draws, 1 loss)
Overview
San Lorenzo host Estudiantes in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on April 3, 2026, 10:30 PM. Estudiantes are in 2nd place with 21 points in the league table. The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with a 40% probability for Estudiantes and 29% for San Lorenzo, with 31% for a draw.
Form
San Lorenzo shows a form of DDDLD across all competitions. The team recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. The last result was a draw. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Estudiantes, on the other hand, shows a form of WLLWW. They achieved 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches. The team won their last 2 games consecutively.
Statistics
San Lorenzo has scored an average of 1.00 goal per game this season and conceded 1.09 goals. At home, the average is 1.00 goal scored and 1.12 goals conceded. Estudiantes, on the other hand, showed a stronger offense with an average of 1.27 goals per game and a very stable defense with only 0.45 goals conceded per game. Away from home, Estudiantes scores 1.25 goals per game and concedes only 0.50 goals.
Head-to-Head
The historical record shows 1 head-to-head match between San Lorenzo and Estudiantes. This match ended in a 1-1 draw on November 5, 2024. The goal difference is balanced at 1:1, indicating an even rivalry.
Key Players
For San Lorenzo, Alexis Cuello is an important offensive player with 4 season goals and 3 assists, his form is declining. Gregorio RodrĂguez has contributed 2 goals so far, his form is stable. Facundo Gulli recorded 2 assists, his form is stable.
For Estudiantes, Tiago Palacios stands out with 3 goals and 2 assists, and his form is rising. Fabricio PĂ©rez scored 2 season goals, his form is declining. Alexis Castro also contributed 2 goals, with his form also rising.
Goalkeepers
Orlando Gill is San Lorenzo's goalkeeper, having played 4 of the last 5 games. San Lorenzo recorded 5 clean sheets this season.
For Estudiantes, Fabricio Iacovich was in goal in one of the last 5 games. Estudiantes achieved 6 clean sheets this season.
Influences
San Lorenzo scored an average of 1.00 goal at home and conceded 1.12 goals. Estudiantes, on the other hand, showed a very stable defense away from home with an average of 1.25 goals scored and only 0.50 goals conceded per game.