Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Sarmiento - Gimnasia La Plata
04/13/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.0
0.7
1:0
16%0:0
15%1:1
14%2:0
11%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
Sarmiento
Gimnasia La Plata
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
33%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
61%
Under 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
32%
Under 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
39%
No
61%
Key Factors
- Sarmiento's strong home defense with an average of 0.5 goals conceded meets Gimnasia's weaker away defense with an average of 1.6 goals conceded
- Sarmiento's positive form with 3 wins in the last 5 games contrasts with Gimnasia's 3 consecutive losses
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability and 1.26 expected goals for Sarmiento
Risk Factors
- Sarmiento recorded an average of only 2.8 shots on target in the last 5 games
- Gimnasia La Plata recently showed a declining form trend for key players like NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto (-0.24 delta) and Alexis Steimbach (-0.22 delta)
Overview
Sarmiento (10th place, 16 points) hosts Gimnasia La Plata in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
The match takes place on April 13, 2026, at 4:30 PM
The mathematical analysis favors Sarmiento with a 47% probability of winning
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Sarmiento shows strong form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
They won their last two games (W W)
Gimnasia La Plata has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 games
They have suffered 3 consecutive losses recently (L L L)
Statistics
Sarmiento averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per game this season
At home, they are defensively strong with an average of 0.5 goals conceded per home game
Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game
Away from home, Gimnasia La Plata conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game
Sarmiento had both teams score in 4 of their season matches, Gimnasia La Plata in 6 matches
Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 Sarmiento games and in 7 Gimnasia La Plata games
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 away win for Gimnasia La Plata and 2 draws
Sarmiento has not won any of the previous encounters
The last match ended on October 04, 2025, with a 0:1 away victory for Gimnasia La Plata
Sarmiento scored a total of 1 goal and Gimnasia La Plata scored 2 goals in these matches
Gimnasia La Plata has been more dominant in recent head-to-head games
Key Players
Sarmiento's Junior Marabel is a key offensive player with 6 goals and 2 assists, his form is rising
Carlos Villalba contributed 1 goal, his form is also rising
Juan Manuel Insaurralde shows a rising form trend
JuliĂĄn Contrera is not nominated and contributed 0 goals and 2 assists to the usual starting lineup strength
For Gimnasia La Plata, Marcelo Torres scored 4 goals and 1 assist, his form is stable
NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, but his form is declining
Enzo MartĂnez scored 2 goals, his form is stable
Manuel Panaro is not nominated and contributed 1 goal and 1 assist to the usual starting lineup strength
Goalkeepers
Sarmiento fields Javier Burrai as goalkeeper, who achieved 4 clean sheets this season
For Gimnasia La Plata, Nelson InsfrĂĄn is in goal, with 1 clean sheet this season
Influences
Sarmiento shows an average home goal difference of +0.38 goals per game
They scored 0.88 home goals and conceded 0.5 home goals per match
Gimnasia La Plata scores an average of 1 goal per away game and concedes 1.6 away goals